DeSantis is ahead in Hillsborough County (Tampa, essentially) in early voting. Astonishing.
Stunning numbers coming out of Miami-Dade. With about two-thirds of the votes in (early votes), DeSantis is winning 54-46. To put that in perspective, in his 2018 election, DeSantis lost 59-39. That's a 28 point net turnaround, and it doesn't even take into account same day voting, which is supposed to be more heavily tilted toward DeSantis.
The early reports from Florida are remarkable. Marco Rubio won the early vote—not the vote, the early vote, which usually favors Democrats—by 7 percent. DeSantis won it by 8 percent. For reference: Hillary Clinton won here by 30 points in 2016; Biden by 7 in 2020.
Polls have just closed in several states, including Georgia and New Hampshire — both of which are home to key Senate races.
Voting has also ended in Florida, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, Indiana and Kentucky.
Wisconsin Barfly Report
Bar patrons are voting, though few are revealing their preferences vocally. During my stops, bartenders from West Allis to Marinette asked others if they were planning to vote. A supermajority of patrons confirmed they would be casting ballots, but said no more. I got the impression that civic duty (voting) and Midwestern politeness (not prying) were satisfied by leaving the matter lie there. That even union guys and university students were unwilling to stump for Democrats to the few of us on the stools in the mid-afternoon tells me it may be tough sledding for the Left, but it could also indicate that voters aren't crazy about what Republicans are offering.
Former Missouri Democratic senator Claire McCaskill, appearing on MSNBC says that among Democrats, there's “a little bit of worry about turnout in Nevada,” which I suspect means that Democrats been following Jon Ralston's changing tone on his Twitter feed, just like the rest of us.
The media statute of limitations on talking about Biden's mental decline expired somewhere around Feb/March 2020, when it was clear he was the last hope to defeat Trump. My guess is that it will be safe to talk about it again by tomorrow morning.
That's the remarkable thing about Biden's age and condition, Jim: the degree to which it's a problem rises and falls with his poll numbers.
Phil, in light of those exit poll numbers, I expect we will see a lot of Democrats openly saying Biden is getting too old to be president and will not be healthy enough to serve out a full second term. We've all seen it for the past two years, but after tonight, it will be safe, even necessary, for Democrats to acknowledge what everyone else sees in Biden.
The problem with early exit polls is that if they're wildly wrong about which candidate or party is winning, then they will also be wildly wrong about which issues voters care most about.
As Sean Trende pointed out on Charlie's podcast today, early exit polls once said George W. Bush would win California.