On Nov. 3, Rich Lowry spoke with Trafalgar Group founder Robert Cahaly on an exclusive, NRPLUS members-only conference call.
The two discussed Cahaly’s passion for polling, the flaws and biases inherent in certain polls, political realignment, and his predictions for how the midterms will shake out next week.
The pair discussed various methods for conducting polls and surveys to elicit honest responses, encourage participation among key demographics, and make accurate predictions about voting behavior.
Cahaly explained that one of the main pitfalls in polling is assuming that respondents answer honestly, noting that polls ahead of the 2016 presidential election, which predicted a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, revealed “a hesitance to tell the truth” when responding to political polls.
However, Cahaly predicted that recent midterm election polls forecasting a Red Wave will prove accurate as hot-button issues and the criminalization of political thought are driving Republicans to make their voices heard at the ballot box.
“A lot of Republicans are nervous,” he said. “They’re submerged, but they are going to vote.”
He said he sees an 80% chance of Republicans taking the Senate by one vote, and predicted a 95% chance that they win the House, with a potential gain of 30 seats – or more. While admitting the submerged vote can’t be measured, he said he expects Nov. 8 to be a good night for Republicans.
“When SNL [Saturday Night Live] is talking about the Republican win being inevitable, that is how you know the mainstream media knows the reality,” he said. “And Republicans are excited.”
As always, thanks to everyone who joined the call, and we look forward to seeing you next time.