What Republicans nationwide can learn from the party’s Wolverine State drubbing.
What Republicans nationwide can learn from the party’s Wolverine State drubbing.
Detroit — Under Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s iron-fisted Covid leadership, Michigan led the country in small-business failures, became synonymous with terrorizing barbers and restaurant owners, and saw children suffer significant learning loss due to school shutdowns.
On Election Day, Michigan voters rewarded her with a landslide victory and Democratic control of the state legislature for the first time in 40 years.
Exit polls show that Whitmer’s support for abortion rights was a key factor in her eleven-point win, but it was only a piece in a larger tapestry. In an election cycle in which a forecast red wave failed to materialize, the unexpected blue wave in one of the Midwest’s key swing states may have been the most eye-opening.
State political insiders say it was the result of an intersection of factors: (1) aggressive Democratic election tactics — including a ballot proposal enshrining abortion in the state’s constitution and the removal of GOP candidates from the ballot; (2) significant ballot reforms enacted since 2018 under Soros-supported secretary of state Jocelyn Benson to increase voter turnout and tip the playing field to Democratic candidates; (3) a partisan media that turned a blind eye to Whitmer’s record; and (4) a state Republican Party crippled by a civil war over Donald Trump, leading its gubernatorial candidate, Tudor Dixon, to be grossly outspent.
In short, Michigan was the anti-Florida. Its lockdown governor won with ease, leaving the Republican Party locked out of state power, leaderless, and a cautionary tale for other states.
It is hard to understate the nightmare Michigan endured under Whitmer in 2020 and 2021. Even before her turn as one of the nation’s most dictatorial Covid administrators, her tenure since entering office in January 2019 had been divisive. Despite years in the Michigan legislature, she proved incapable of working across the aisle — even failing to enact her campaign centerpiece: a roads bill.
When Covid hit, she stiff-armed the Republican legislature. She declared a state of emergency, forcing draconian lockdowns akin to those in far-left states such as California and New York.
Working with Attorney General Dana Nessel, Whitmer created a state of fear. She banned motorboat fishing on the Great Lakes because she alleged that gas-pump handles were super-spreaders. She sent police to homes to enforce lockdowns. She jailed Polish émigré Marlena Pavlos-Hackney for keeping her restaurant open. Her school closings from March 2020 until January 2021 were met with broad parent backlash.
Michigan seemed ripe for GOP picking.
Incensed by Whitmer’s abuse of power, Mark Ambrose, a veteran and successful financial analyst, decided to run for Congress.
“It was awful how my kids suffered, especially my autistic son,” said Ambrose, whose child was enrolled in a special public school for students with autism-spectrum disorder. “He was just sitting at home in front of a screen. He was getting none of his crucial IEPs (individualized education programs). We felt powerless.”
Ambrose ran in Michigan’s eleventh congressional district against Democrat Haley Stevens, citing good midterm-election winds, a weak governor at the top of the ticket, raging inflation, and President Biden’s low approval ratings.
“Based on district history, my campaign consultant estimated we’d need around 145,000 votes to win, and I did well with 141,000 votes,” said Ambrose in an interview. “But Stevens got 224,000.”
Even businessman John James, one of the Michigan GOP’s stars after the African-American Army veteran ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2018 and 2020, barely survived in the neighboring tenth congressional district after outspending former Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga $4 million to $814,000.
“How bad was it? John just won by 1,600 votes,” said Ambrose, a friend and fellow West Point grad, of James’s 48.8–48.3 percent squeaker.
The tsunami reflects Michigan Democrats’ record election turnout, turbocharged by abortion and Democratic planning. Democrats laid the groundwork for the blue wave early in the primary season.
They struck quickly.
After a Democratic Party complaint to the state elections board overseen by Benson, five of the Republicans’ ten gubernatorial-primary candidates were disqualified from the ballot on May 26 based on allegations of fraudulent signatures — including the clear front-runner, African-American former Detroit police chief James Craig. The unprecedented ruling stood as the canvassing board deadlocked along party lines, provoking Republican accusations that Democrats were subverting democracy.
“The way this bureau deviated from its historical practice is unprecedented,” said state Republican Party chairman Ron Weiser. “This is about fighting against voter disenfranchisement and for choice at the ballot box.”
Craig had built a national — as well as state — profile in TV appearances criticizing Democrats’ support for the #DefundPolice movement that had provoked a surge in crime — including a 9 percent rise in violent crime and a 30 percent increase in Michigan homicides.
The remaining five candidates were relative unknowns, and Tudor Dixon, a mother and media personality, emerged as the primary winner — complete with Donald Trump’s endorsement.
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A month later, Democrats secured another pillar in their election strategy, seizing on the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade with Proposal 3 — a ballot initiative granting “a fundamental right to reproductive freedom.”
“How do you mobilize Democrats and get people to stop thinking about gas prices and the economy? Put abortion on the ballot,” said Leon Drolet, a county commissioner in blue-collar Macomb County and a veteran state Republican activist.
Democrats’ single-minded campaign to pass Proposal 3 dovetailed with two other Democrat-sponsored ballot measures passed in 2018 aimed at getting more constituents to the polls. Secretary of State Benson, a steely partisan and major beneficiary of the George Soros-funded Democracy PAC II’s efforts to influence state elections, won office in 2018 and has aggressively implemented the Democratic Party’s ballot agenda. “She’s a figurehead for the movement,” said Parker Thayer of the Capital Research Center that tracks mail-in ballot efforts.
“Democrats traditionally struggle in non-presidential election cycles to get out their vote,” said Drolet. “So they successfully passed Proposal 2 and 3 in 2018.”
Together, the ’18 initiatives enabled Michiganders to show up to the polls on Election Day and register and vote in one fell swoop — contrary to the laws in other states that require voter registration a month ahead of Election Day. Michigan also became one of only six states to allow straight-ticket voting.
Since 2018, absentee ballots have grown from 27 percent to 40 percent of votes cast. Political experts say Democrats have seized on absentee ballots to make voting a seasonal (rather than single-day) phenomenon that encourages ballot harvesting. Still, Election Day saw huge lines outside college campuses as the Democratic Party mobilized liberal youth and suburban women to vote for Proposal 3 and the Democratic ticket.
“The youth vote was up 207 percent. Lines in Ann Arbor [where the University of Michigan is located] were five hours long,” said veteran pollster Steve Mitchell, the CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications. “Registering and voting on the same day made it easier.”
Reeling from national news reports that she had violated her own Covid rules by traveling to Florida and eating at restaurants, Whitmer had gone underground in spring 2021 — disappearing from public view.
“Whitmer seemed to back away from her dictates early enough that, when she came back, many people had forgotten, and she could concentrate on abortion,” said Drolet.
Democrats’ clarion call to protect reproductive freedom was given a megaphone by the state’s monolithically Democratic media establishment, which went silent as damning data emerged indicating that Whitmer’s Covid lockdowns had crushed student learning — particularly in low-income areas such as Detroit. The media also failed to investigate Whitmer’s disastrous policy of sending Covid-infected patients to nursing homes.
“There were no consequences for her lies and misbehavior,” lamented GOP candidate Ambrose. “There was no media accountability.”
Neither was there financial support from the Republican Party.
While Democrats closed ranks behind Whitmer and abortion, the GOP fractured. An intraparty civil war broke out between the party’s establishment and MAGA supporters. The primary victories of Trump-backed stop-the-steal candidates such as Dixon, attorney-general nominee Matt DePerno, and secretary-of-state nominee Kristina Karamo soured the state’s Republican donors.
Dixon, an adept debater and the party’s first female nominee for governor, was starved for cash. She was outspent 28 to one by Whitmer in the campaign’s critical early months and was buried in TV ads that tattooed her as a pro-life extremist.
Whitmer rolled — and she also rolled up the state legislature. Credit again those 2018 Democratic ballot initiatives. They ripped control of redistricting from the legislature and gave it to a state commission overseen by Secretary of State Benson.
“Redistricting created more competitive seats for Republicans,” said Drolet, who saw two secure GOP seats flip in his Macomb County backyard. “It made it very difficult for Republicans to survive this wave.”
As the party picks up the pieces, Drolet said that state ballot proposals will be the quickest way to turn around fortunes.
“The Democrats will overreach on shutting down energy pipelines and right-to-work laws,” he said. “Republicans need to be ready with ballot proposals to overturn legislation.”
Don’t expect Republican ballot proposals to overturn abortion rights, however. The issue swamped Republicans, with Proposal 3 winning 57 percent to 43 percent, and exit polls showing 62 percent support for abortion with no restrictions.
“The people have spoken,” said pollster Mitchell. “No Michigan Republican would dare overturn the right to abortion. They just saw how it killed the party.”
Drolet said the blue wave may help the party “de-Trump” and move on: “Being in the desert may purge Republicans of their weak leaders. The lesson of Florida is that strong leadership matters.”