And that could make all the difference.
And that could make all the difference.
W e’ll find out how much juice Donald Trump has in GOP presidential politics over the year ahead, but one thing he won’t have is a Jeb Bush–like foil.
Bush is an honorable man and accomplished public servant who served, largely through circumstances beyond his control, as the ideal opponent for Trump in 2016.
There’s no Trump rival on the horizon in 2024 so neatly tailored to Trump’s purposes, in part because Trump-catalyzed changes in the party now make a Jeb Bush–type figure impossible.
At the moment, Trump is being hurt by his failures, but as time passes in the 2024 race he may be as hurt by this, one of his successes, as much as anything else.
Jeb Bush was part of a family dynasty and inextricably linked to the party establishment. He believed in conventional Republican policy positions and exuded the spirit of the 2012 RNC “autopsy,” in particular on immigration. He was, initially, thought to be the over-dog in the race, the establishment front-runner of the sort who almost always wins. He was a monster fundraiser out of the gate who looked capable of stomping the rest of the field through sheer financial force. Finally, on top of all of this, he hadn’t been in office since January 2007, leaving him rusty and behind the times.
No one comes close to fitting this bill this time around. Ron DeSantis, who projects as Trump’s main threat in the very early going, is different on all counts.
He doesn’t come from a prominent family and is a product of Trump more than the GOP establishment. He isn’t notably heterodox on policy, but he quickly absorbed the new priorities on the right — finding multiple ways to challenge the woke Left and pushing back relentlessly on the media. As for the autopsy, there couldn’t have been an initiative more out of sync with its conclusions than sending migrants to Martha’s Vineyard. He’s set up as the fresh thing in contrast to Trump’s long dominance of the GOP, and, of course, coming off an enormous reelection victory just two weeks ago, he’s at the height of his powers as a sitting governor.
Where there’s overlap with Jeb, it’s in DeSantis’s massive fundraising ability. While this speaks to a high level of interest in him among the donor class, the rest of the governor’s attributes will keep his presumed 2024 haul from being perceived the way that Bush’s was in 2016 — namely, as an attempt by donors to decide a nomination battle before it truly begins.
All this said, it’s important to remember that if Bush was Trump’s favorite target — and the one who put the strengths of Trump’s campaign in starkest relief — he wasn’t the only one. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio ultimately got run over, too.
It’s true that Bush never figured out how to deal with Trump’s insults and full-spectrum animosity, but neither did anyone else.
That’s a condition that still may obtain. It’s easy — and the right play — for DeSantis to brush off Trump’s attacks for now. Yet the time for side-stepping will end eventually, and DeSantis might find it harder than he anticipates to solve the dilemma of responding to Trump that Bush faced in 2016.
The early returns are encouraging, though. The negative reaction to Trump’s attacks on DeSantis is different from the reaction to Trump’s attacks on Bush in 2016. No one instinctively rose to Jeb’s defense. (There was revulsion at Trump’s “I like people who don’t get captured” attack on John McCain, yes, although that was mostly among elites.)
The rallying around DeSantis in response to Trump is a broad phenomenon in the party, and speaks to the differences between this Florida governor and his predecessor: Bush was firmly pre-Trump in all respects, while DeSantis is unmistakably post-Trump.
In 2016, Trump’s persona and priorities looked appealing compared to an establishment that many Republicans hated as tired, ineffectual, and out of touch. Heading into the 2024 cycle after having all but destroyed that establishment, Trump is left with a rival who, assuming he runs, is not going to be as convenient or vulnerable.