Taiwan’s Overlooked Linchpin?

T here’s an old joke about Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s third-most populous city: If an aspiring strongman were to attempt a coup today, he’d first need to go through the city’s mayor. The reason for that is simple: Kaohsiung hosts major Taiwanese military bases and training academies.

As Taiwan faces the looming threat of an invasion by the Chinese Communist Party, on a timeline that numerous U.S. and Taiwanese officials warn is accelerating, Kaohsiung, situated on the country’s southwest coast some 180 miles from China, will be a key strategic linchpin, and its fate during such an attack could have outsized consequences. For one, it’s the beating heart of the country’s defense–industrial base. And it hosts Taiwan’s largest port — the 15th largest in the world.

“This is the main point, main city of the defense industry. Not just the navy base or air force base,” said Liu Shyh-fang, a legislator from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who represents one of the city’s largest districts, Zuoying, which encompasses a major naval base. During an interview in Kaohsiung with National Review in early October, Liu pointed to the manufacturing of submarines, airplanes, and ships taking place in the city. “Taiwan is so small. We have nothing to choose” between, she added.

In August, after hearing from the defense ministry that Taiwan’s current defense budget was not large enough, Liu called for an increase; soon after, President Tsai Ing-wen announced a dramatic military budget boost of 14 percent from the prior year that exceeded even Liu’s aspirational target.

Despite its central role, the city — a historical stronghold for the DPP, which generally fared poorly in municipal elections across Taiwan in November but nevertheless performed well in Kaohsiung — has not really attracted the attention that it probably merits from foreigners interested in bolstering Taiwan’s defenses. Events in the city do not usually dominate international headlines. Members of Congress and U.S. officials who have visited the island to show their support have mostly stuck to the capital on quick trips that have drawn histrionics from Beijing.

But as Washington, Taipei, and Taiwan’s allies prepare to deter an invasion from Beijing in the coming years, foreign officials will need to quickly get acquainted with Kaohsiung.

The city could be a key target for invading forces if Beijing attacks Taiwan. When the Chinese military lobbed missiles into the waters on all sides of the island after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited this year, one of the zones in which the highly provocative drills played out was just off Kaohsiung. That led some container ships to delay plans to dock there for a few days until the conclusion of the exercises.

Kaohsiung’s role as a major international shipping hub has contributed to its importance eas a target. In a report last year, Ian Easton of the Project 2049 Institute assessed that the Port of Kaohsiung is one of a few “potential targets that would almost certainly be considered by Chinese generals.” Although it’s expected that the Taiwanese would fiercely defend the city, the port itself has a critical vulnerability: It has been compromised by Chinese Communist Party–linked companies, the military analyst wrote.

PHOTOS: Taiwan Military Exercises

Some U.S. military personnel already realize that Washington is playing catch-up when it comes to learning about Kaohsiung and other potentially overlooked areas of the country.

Liang-chih Evans Chen, an associate research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), a government-backed think tank, told NR that he recently spoke to a Marine officer posted to the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto U.S. embassy, who views inspecting Kaohsiung harbor as “the most important” part of his assignment to the island.

That officer expressed interest in studying the configuration of the harbor so that he’d be more familiar with it in the event of a potential contingency, according to Chen, who spoke to NR during an interview at INDSR’s Taipei headquarters in October. The U.S. officer also purportedly suggested that a humanitarian mission to various Taiwanese ports might provide U.S. forces the ability to study Kaohsiung harbor while responding to a natural-disaster situation. (While the U.S. hasn’t officially stationed troops in Taiwan since the normalization of U.S.-China ties in the 1970s, Washington reportedly maintains a tiny presence of a few dozen active-duty troops in the country to perform various duties.)

Chen said that U.S. personnel never go on-site to inspect Taiwan’s harbors, but that there’s been renewed interest in this, as Beijing has ramped up its military activities in the strait. He added that some military experts advocate that U.S. forces should take a closer look at the city of Hualien, on Taiwan’s east coast, since that port could play a vital role in ensuring a steady stream of supplies to Taiwan during a blockage. “So perhaps Taiwan’s government, or perhaps the U.S. [Indo-Pacific Command], should think about how to strengthen and preserve Taiwan’s air bases, airports, and harbors in the east of Taiwan,” he added.

Meanwhile, amid a stepped-up focus on civilian-defense preparations in Taiwan, the Kaohsiung city government is also conducting exercises for emergency situations that could include a foreign invasion.

Liu told NR about a new sort of drill that the Kaohsiung government hosted for the first time this year, in tandem with the Ministry of National Defense. That exercise brought together more than 2,000 people, including volunteers, policemen, firemen, and other emergency-response personnel to practice for a potential mass-casualty event; specific scenarios included an airplane crash and the destruction of a natural-gas pipeline. There were also medical training sessions.

“This kind of drill helped a lot of people, even government officials, to understand, this is the real process, the proper process we need to do,” said Tung Chien-hung, an associate professor at Kaohsiung’s Chung Hsing University who is knowledgeable about the city’s efforts in this regard. He said that even his mother has questions for him about what to do in the event of an earthquake.

Nevertheless, daily life goes on, and on a sunny Sunday afternoon this fall, people flocked to a new design exhibition in the city center and to a beach next to the city’s National Sun Yat-sen University. In a pedestrian tunnel near the university campus, military recruiters from the marines, army, air force, and navy milled around tables showcasing models of Taiwanese-produced jets and vessels. Asked if the recruitment drive was a response to heightened Chinese aggression, one navy recruiter said only that Taiwan is “always preparing” to meet foreign threats.

Kaohsiung’s residents have learned to live under constant threats as part of their daily life, Liu told NR. “In the southwestern part of Taiwan, Kaohsiung, near the Taiwan Strait, we have lots of Chinese air jets trying to cross the so-called [Air Defense Identification Zone] for over two years. Every Kaohsiung people, every Taiwanese, know that because our defense people have made it clear to the people of Taiwan.”