Do I need to see more of Trump? No. Nor Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, or Mike Pompeo.
Do I need to see more of Trump? No. Nor Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, or Mike Pompeo.
A fter the shortest possible amount of time, and the minimal amount of evidence, I’ve seen enough. I’m ready to bet the future of the Republican Party on Ron DeSantis. Let’s just get on with Ron.
The case is simple. While Donald Trump’s 2016 candidacy was remarkably efficient at attracting the precise number of voters it needed in the precise states to narrowly win the Electoral College, the Republican Party under Trump has repelled voters faster than it attracted them. It posted losses among white women and white men that could not be offset by gains among Hispanic voters. Ron DeSantis is the only figure in the Republican Party who has substantially expanded the appeal of the GOP in this recent era.
Donald Trump has unique attributes as a candidate that are useless to deny. He has star power. He is genuinely funny. And, most hateful to admit, his moral deficiencies come with political advantages. His shamelessness allows him to overpromise to every possible voting bloc. The intensely polarized dynamic he can establish with his establishment antagonists — Donald contra mundum — is intoxicating to Trump’s devoted supporters.
Trump is also profoundly unpopular outside of the Republican Party. He unites, outrages, and mobilizes the Democratic Party and many independents against him, the same way that Hillary Clinton united the Republican Party and many independents against her. And there are tremendous downsides to a Trump sequel. The chaotic nature of his first administration is likely to be exacerbated in a second. And he will not be eligible to run again in 2028. He will be nearly as old as Joe Biden was when he was elected.
The case against having an overcrowded field of underwhelming candidates for the Republican nomination is obvious. The effect is to diminish everyone. And the result will be to advantage Donald Trump, who starts with universal name recognition and all that star power.
Hundreds of thousands of people moved to Florida during Ron DeSantis’s first term as governor. They did so because DeSantis made a different choice on how to handle Covid-19, different from the establishment, and even from Donald Trump. Not all of these people were Republicans when they sought refuge in Florida, but the evidence on the voter-registration rolls suggests that many have become Republicans in Florida. DeSantis’s strong encouragement for schools to open benefited Florida students and won him fans nationwide, particularly among suburban moms who hated school closures, masked developmental therapies for their children, and the hasty imposition of Covid-19 vaccine mandates.
DeSantis was the figure in this era who made the Republican emphasis on removing the heavy hand of government appealing to entirely new groups of voters. Anecdotally, I know many Hillary 2016 voters who are all on board for DeSantis in 2024. Some were on the crunchier, skeptical left. Others were in what you might call the Joe Rogan middle. Public-health conformism and errors during the pandemic drove them to the political right. Why? Because of figures such as DeSantis. The cultural fights he has picked on education and gender ideology speak to their concerns. He is a conservative statesman who understands that present emergencies should not impel us to rashly alter ways of life that exist for a reason. That’s why he is already as effective a fund-raiser in the party as Donald Trump is.
And then there is the most obvious reason to bet on DeSantis. He can unite the Republican Party. The party may disagree deeply about trade, the rate and type of immigration that is useful, and foreign policy. But most Republicans seem to be able to agree on him.
He has a deep appeal to Trump voters who appreciate how DeSantis has taken up Trump’s mantle against the media and even big “woke” corporations. He appeals to anti-Trump voters, who see in him a bridge from the party as Trump re-created it — and a future where they aren’t embarrassed to pull the lever for Republicans. His political success compels Republicans to trust his instincts. His competence reassures independents.
Do I need to see more of Trump? No. Nor Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, or Mike Pompeo. I don’t want 18 months of drama. Just pencil in Ron and move on.