McCarthy on the Cusp of Being Elected Speaker

K evin McCarthy emerged from the House chamber on Thursday afternoon confident that he would have the votes to be elected speaker of the House of Representatives Friday night.

After so many failed votes, why was he sure he could close the deal tonight? “Because I count,” McCarthy told reporters.

On Friday, 14 of the 20 House Republicans who had backed candidates other than McCarthy threw their support behind him after the “framework” of a deal came together between McCarthy and most of the rebels.

Although six holdouts remained, there were signs that their opposition was softening. One of the six remaining anti-McCarthy Republicans, Matt Gaetz of Florida, said on Wednesday he would “never” vote for McCarthy, but on Friday, he said he was open to voting for McCarthy:

If all members are present and make a choice for speaker, McCarthy would need 218 votes. But if some members are absent or vote present, that would lower the majority threshold necessary to be elected speaker. A source told Politico that Matt Rosendale of Montana and Eli Crane of Arizona, two of the six holdouts, might vote present tonight:

The details of the deal that put McCarthy on the cusp of the speakership, though not released to the public, covered several topics, according to those who negotiated it.

It would govern rules of how legislation and amendments would be handled, the make-up of the powerful Rules Committee, and commitments to bring several specific bills to the floor.

One of the bills would automatically impose a 2 percent cut of federal spending instead of shutting down the government if a deal to fund the government could not be reached. “I think it’s a very good idea, but I don’t want to raise expectations because it needs to be passed and signed into law, which means the Senate has to go along,” said Representative French Hill of Arkansas, a McCarthy ally who was involved in the negotiations.

Hill described the deal as an “aspirational framework on how House Republicans will work on amendments, on proposing how to control spending, aspirations on what the budget resolution ought to be in the Budget Committee — all through regular order.”

The reported commitment to bring forward a bill to balance the budget also raised some concerns among defense hawks, but Wisconsin Republican Mike Gallagher, a prominent hawk in the House, told the Dispatch that his understanding was that all budget cuts could be taken out of non-defense spending. Such large cuts would have a hard time getting a majority in the House and no chance of passing the Senate.

When National Review asked Indiana representative Jim Banks about the potential impact McCarthy’s deal could have on defense spending, Banks replied: “I don’t know enough about it to talk about it. If you find out about it, let me know.”

The holdouts were offered more power on the Rules Committee, which is the last hurdle any bill must pass before heading to the floor and governs amendments and debate on the floor. But the details of the deal weren’t clear even to Oklahoma congressman Tom Cole, the man who will chair the committee if McCarthy is elected speaker. When a reporter asked Cole if the Freedom Caucus holdouts were promised two or three seats, he replied: “I have no earthly idea. I just take whatever the [GOP] leader says and work with them.”

While specifics of McCarthy’s deal remained somewhat hazy on Friday, it appeared likely to finally hand him the speakership after an excruciating week of failed votes.