Get Ready for Trump to Attack DeSantis from the Left

F lorida governor Ron DeSantis is most known for his relatively early abandonment of Covid restrictions and aggressive battles against wokeness in all its manifestations. But he entered politics before today’s culture-war battles were front and center, when the Tea Party was still strong, and when a desire to shrink government was what separated the real conservatives from the RINO wing.

In a post reacting to the Social Security and Medicare dustup between Republicans and President Biden during the State of the Union, Josh Barro reminds his readers that as a member of the House of Representatives, DeSantis not only supported Paul Ryan-style proposals to overhaul entitlements but actually voted for conservative alternatives that went further. Much of Barro’s post is about how Biden could exploit this record in a face-off against DeSantis. But it’s likely that DeSantis will face these attacks well before any theoretical general-election match-up — from Donald Trump.

Trump has consistently rejected the idea of entitlement reform, which he sees as a political loser. Currently, he is lecturing Republicans that they shouldn’t cut a single penny out of Social Security and Medicare. He reiterated that point again yesterday and diverted attention to much smaller items in the federal budget, such as foreign aid, gender-ideology instruction in the military, illegal immigration, and “waste and fraud.”

It will not only be irresistible for Trump to attack DeSantis for his past positions on entitlements but a gambit with established precedent in a Republican primary. While people remember Rick Perry’s 2012 campaign for his infamous “oops” moment, his major collapse in polls came well before that, after Mitt Romney started pummeling him for calling Social Security a “Ponzi scheme” that should be turned over to the states. Perry was polling at over 30 percent in the RealClearPolitics average when Romney’s attacks started in mid September and dropped into the single digits by the time of his “oops” debate in early November.

Trump attacking DeSantis on this issue would likely serve several purposes. One, it would help him create suspicions among older voters who constitute a large segment of the Republican-primary electorate, as well as those who like to believe the idea that foreign aid and fraud are what’s really driving our $31 trillion debt. Two, it would help raise doubts about DeSantis’s electability, which right now is one of the best assets the governor has in a race against Trump. Three, since the media would agree with Trump on this issue, they would amplify all of his attacks in a way that they have not with his other barrages against DeSantis to this point.

The attacks would also put DeSantis in a difficult spot. He was undeniably right a decade ago about the desperate need to overhaul these programs. But the party has moved in a different direction since then, thanks in no small part to Trump’s influence, and there is little to be gained politically by reiterating those stances (beyond earning kudos from spending hawks like myself) — and there is much to lose. If Romney was able to land blows by attacking Perry from the left on Social Security during the peak of the Tea Party era, there’s no doubt Trump could gain ground by hitting DeSantis given the current composition of the GOP.

But if DeSantis backs away from his prior positions, it’s a blow to his image as a conviction politician, and makes him look much more like a political opportunist — a guy who wanted to be seen as a spending hawk when the Tea Party was popular with the base, but wants to be seen as a culture warrior now that the party has become more populist.

DeSantis obviously has some degree of experience navigating this issue as governor of the state with a significant retiree population. In 2022, he won voters over 65 by 28 points, while Trump only beat Biden among Florida seniors by ten. But Social Security and Medicare are both federal programs that the governor does not have a role in, so that isn’t really a true test of how he’d withstand months of attacks over his past positions.

Either way, the attacks from Trump are coming. As DeSantis gears up for an inevitable presidential run, he better be prepared.