The Republican Party under Trump has become far weaker in nearly every major swing state that will determine who wins in 2024.
The Republican Party under Trump has become far weaker in nearly every major swing state that will determine who wins in 2024.
R epublicans are drowning in various forms of aggravation over former president Donald Trump’s indictment in New York. Some lament the attention it is garnering for the presidential candidate and porn-star philanderer. Others see it as an opportunity to rally the party faithful. It’s a mistake, however, for Republican voters to focus myopically on this (likely first) indictment.
If they’d take a wider view, they’d find instead that they have much more to be morose about. Trump’s recent indictment was, in fact, merely one chapter in a long story of GOP disappointments since Trump took control of the party in 2016. One needs only to peruse recent election history in nearly every major battleground state.
In Wisconsin, the most recent arena of defeat, a Republican whom Trump had supported in a 2020 defeat lost another election for the Wisconsin supreme court on the same day Trump was indicted. As National Review columnist Christian Schneider pointed out on Twitter, this loss was not unique. “At the advent of the Trump era in 2017, conservatives held an insurmountable 5–2 majority in the WI Supreme Court. They’ve now lost the court and two governor’s races,” he said.
In Pennsylvania, perhaps the most dramatic example, the party entered 2017 with Republicans holding one of the state’s U.S. Senate seats, 13 of its 18 U.S. House seats, and 39-seat and 18-seat majorities in the state house and senate, respectively. The governorship was held by Democratic governor Tom Wolf, who presided amongst a sea of Republicans in Harrisburg and in a state that had just handed Trump the White House — hardly a comfortable position.
Now, however, the Pennsylvania GOP holds zero U.S. Senate seats, a minority eight of the 17 U.S. congressional seats, and its once-massive statehouse majority is now a one-seat minority. The last two gubernatorial elections have been drubbings, with Wolf and current governor Josh Shapiro beating their Trump-backed Republican opponents by margins usually seen in Illinois or California. That leaves statewide electoral power for Republicans relegated to a six-seat majority in the state senate (a third of its 2017 strength) and the auditor general’s and treasurer’s offices.
Pennsylvania state senator Doug Mastriano, who lost the 2022 gubernatorial election to Shapiro, is planning to announce a bid for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democratic senator Bob Casey. With state GOP operatives distressed that a plurality of the party base could again rally behind the Trump acolyte, Mastriano’s biggest financial promoter for the nomination could end up being his future Democratic opponent — again.
In Michigan, where Republicans held 16-seat majorities in both the state senate and house in 2017, both chambers have flipped to Democratic control. Meanwhile, Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer trounced the Trump-backed Tudor Dixon in 2022. Now, a state that had a Republican trifecta five years ago is governed by a Democratic trifecta, which hasn’t happened since 1983.
In Arizona, where Republicans hold strong majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and the U.S. House delegation thanks to favorable district boundaries and a 4 percent registration advantage, Democratic governor Katie Hobbs defeated Trump champion Kari Lake despite barely campaigning in the 2022 gubernatorial election. And the only reason the state doesn’t have two Democratic U.S. senators is that Kyrsten Sinema left the party to become an independent.
And we all know what happened in Georgia.
Some Republicans may counter that the party recently held more power in state governments than any time in recent history. Indeed, the party held 20 state legislatures after the 2020 elections, while Democrats only held 18. However, most of those victories came prior to Trump, and many of the victories in 2020 came despite him. In Pennsylvania, for example, the party clung to a state general-assembly majority that year with down-ballot victories in suburban counties where Trump saw his support crater among ticket-splitting voters, including Republicans.
Still, some Republicans may counter that Trump and other MAGA candidates are essential to energize the GOP’s “silent majority.” Indeed, Trump brought in previously unseen voters and voters with backgrounds the GOP would have previously written off, such as blue-collar union members. However, recent elections have proven that this was a one-hit-wonder. Again, turn to Pennsylvania. In counties one would consider “Trump country,” Trump saw his support shrink between elections. In Westmoreland County, for example, he went from a 31.4 percent win in 2016 to a 28.4 percent win in 2020. And other MAGA candidates, such as Mastriano, saw support in supposed Trump country nearly disappear in 2022. Mastriano won Westmoreland County by a mere 6.4 percent.
These truths may not be comfortable, but they are the truth. The Republican Party under Trump has become far weaker in nearly every major swing state that will determine who wins in 2024. Republican voters still willing to entertain rational thought should refrain from letting the emotions of the indictment overcome them. Instead of acting defensively by instinct, Republicans should ask themselves: How much more of this should we take?