New Hampshire Poll Gives Us a Window into 2024

N ew Hampshire occupies a valuable position on the political calendar. As one of the only early primary states that is also a contested swing state in the general election, the Granite State provides political observers with some indications as to how an ongoing primary race will shape the contours of the general election to follow. The latest poll of New Hampshire voters via CNN and the University of New Hampshire does just that, cutting through the clutter of too-early surveys of the national electorate and clarifying the state of the presidential race ahead of 2024.

Candidates for the White House have devoted time and resources to this state, unlike many other states. The campaigns are on the air broadcasting both positive introductory messages about themselves and, perhaps more importantly, negative ads against their opponents. Many of the candidates on the GOP side are campaigning in New Hampshire, acquainting themselves with voters and building voter-contact operations. Likewise, Joe Biden’s incumbency ensures that the state is fully appraised of his conduct in office, even if his campaign isn’t broadcasting there yet.

That dynamic allows us the first glimpse at what the electorate will look like next year. The first impression to which readers of this CNN/UNH survey are privy is that New Hampshire voters, having marinated in each candidate’s messaging, have come away from that experience with a dim view of everyone in the race.

Sixty-two percent of all registered voters in the state would be “angry” or “dissatisfied” if Donald Trump won the White House in 2024. Fifty-six percent say the same of Joe Biden. Indeed, New Hampshire voters are disgruntled by the field of candidates in both parties. On the GOP side, 48 percent say a Tim Scott presidency would make them “angry” or “dissatisfied” —and that’s the best performance of any candidate in the race. At 76 percent, the prospect of a Mike Pence presidency generates the most dissatisfaction. Majorities and even supermajorities appear to be repulsed by the notion that anyone currently vying for the White House might actually win it.

And yet, one of these candidates will take the oath of office on January 20, 2025, and this survey tells us more about that potential outcome than national surveys that are only taking the temperature of plugged-in partisans and pushing unenthusiastic prospective voters to make up their minds. The most likely general-election matchup at this stage of the race — a second contest between Trump and Biden — is not competitive in New Hampshire. The president enjoys a twelve-point lead over Trump, who wins just 79 percent of registered GOP voters.

It’s likely that a Trump campaign will bring some of these disgruntled Republicans “home” at the end of a grueling campaign season. But this survey was taken against the backdrop of the negative ads his Republican opponents are airing against him, including those that highlight his legal troubles. Trump lost the Granite State in 2020 by seven points, but that represented a radical decline from his performance in 2016, when he lost the state to Hillary Clinton by just four-tenths of a point. Even if Trump recovers some of the Republicans who refused to hold their noses for him in this poll, Trump is on track to lose New Hampshire by an even larger margin next November.

As a reflection of the degree to which campaigns matter, Biden’s performance against some of his other prospective opponents is telling. The president enjoys the support of a majority of voters in a head-to-head matchup against Ron DeSantis, but the Florida governor has prioritized his operation in Iowa over New Hampshire. By contrast, candidates who have devoted time and money to wooing Granite State voters look to be in better shape. Chris Christie holds Biden’s support down to 44 percent, and the president draws just 45 percent of the vote against Nikki Haley. The also-rans who haven’t devoted substantial resources to New Hampshire perform worse against the president, but none of the GOP’s candidates fare as poorly as Trump.

The most interesting findings in this survey suggest the extent to which New Hampshire might be home to the sanest electorate in America — at least, insofar as Granite State voters seem entirely unimpressed with the stuff that captures the imaginations of America’s “too-online” political observers.

Among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is viewed favorably by just 9 percent. Seventy-nine percent of registered Democrats view him unfavorably. The survey doesn’t test Vivek Ramaswamy’s likability among registered Republicans, but, in a head-to-head matchup against Joe Biden, the billionaire entrepreneur can count on the support of just 63 percent of Republican voters. Despite the favorable coverage the candidate has received on Fox News primetime, the candidate draws the backing of just 69 percent of Fox viewers. The internet celebrity enjoyed by Kennedy and Ramaswamy alike hasn’t translated into votes.

Despite the feeble efforts by the White House and its allies to convince the public that their eyes are deceiving them, New Hampshire voters are not operating under any illusions when it comes to Joe Biden’s mental acuity. When asked if Biden is “mentally and physically capable of fulfilling” his presidential duties, just 53 percent of the state’s registered Democrats agree that he “definitely is,” though that figure rises to 64 percent among MSNBC viewers. Yet despite that and the White House’s best efforts to demote the New Hampshire primary to some later date on the political calendar, 78 percent of registered Democrats still back the president, with 69 percent committed to writing him in on the primary ballot if his name does not appear on it.

At 54 percent, the number of registered New Hampshire Republicans who still insist that Donald Trump won the 2020 election remains discouragingly high. But that’s nothing compared with national polling, which can find that upwards of 70 percent of registered and self-identified Republicans are still willing to tell pollsters that they think Trump is the legitimately elected president. Indeed, only 47 percent of self-described Fox News–watchers in New Hampshire are willing to sign on to the president’s preferred conspiracy theory. Support for the notion that Trump was cheated out of the 2020 race is larger among consumers of alternative center-right media, but that’s also a much smaller universe of voters.

Events can and will intervene between today and Election Day 2024, and the dynamics of the race will evolve. But the state of play in New Hampshire tells us a lot about what that evolution will look like when the campaigns and independent expenditures alike converge on swing states. Joe Biden is a weak incumbent festooned with baggage, but he can count on his partisans despite it all. Donald Trump is an even weaker candidate who is being damaged by the primary race in ways that are unlikely to dissipate entirely by November 2024. If that matchup is the outcome this primary cycle produces, the results of the general election will hardly be unforeseeable.