If the Democratic Party was built by farmers and unions, it is now the party of knowledge professionals and creative types.
If the Democratic Party was built by farmers and unions, it is now the party of knowledge professionals and creative types.
‘ Joe Six-Pack, a guy who works hard and wants to be left alone.” That’s how a Boston Globe writer described the typical blue-collar worker in 1970. But today’s working-class Joe is savvy, too. He recognizes corruption, dislikes high taxes, and understands the impact of big government.
Today’s liberal policies are hitting working-class Joe — recall “Joe the Plumber,” who confronted Barack Obama on the 2008 campaign trail, and who recently passed away — right in the wallet.
Most American workers enjoyed temporary boosts to their income with Covid-relief payments and extended unemployment benefits. But those short-term benefits have been entirely eaten up by massive inflation, which rose again last month, driven by out-of-control government spending. The typical American family is spending $709 more per month this year than it did two years ago. In Colorado, it’s spending an additional $1,167 per month.
You need a solid job to afford those higher prices, but the Left isn’t making finding such jobs any easier.
Government rules affect blue-collar workers everywhere. More than 20 percent of workers in the United States need occupational licenses, and many of them face exorbitant registration fees and excessive restrictions that limit job opportunities, raise consumer costs, and disproportionately affect racial minorities. Fishermen in New England have just filed a lawsuit against the federal government, protesting the unaccountable fishery-management councils that are imposing draconian restrictions on their livelihoods. And Wyoming coal miners may eventually all work on windmill farms, but, in the meantime, the forced green-energy transition will likely have steep costs for them.
Open borders impact the ordinary Joe, too. Whether recent, nonspecialized immigrant workers gain legal status or not, they compete head-to-head for blue-collar jobs.
And the working class hasn’t been helped by increases in the minimum wage either. The Harvard Business Review looked at this in 2021 as many states and localities were raising their minimum-wage rates. It found that while California employers kept the same number of employees or even added some, they reduced the number of hours worked per employee — resulting in a 13.6 percent decrease in the income of the average minimum-wage worker.
Okay, some might say — aren’t there millions of new jobs today compared with just three years ago? A comedian recently chirped that our economy is so successful that everyone now has two jobs. More than 8 million people are working multiple jobs, and starting pay has fallen since the hectic job market of 2021–22 cooled down. The U.S. labor market is generally in a chaotic period post-Covid, with “new collar” jobs emerging, and white-collar workers feeling the heat from artificial intelligence.
The big picture for working-class Joe has changed in two ways. First, the middle class has shrunk from 61 percent of the population in 1971 to just 50 percent as of 2021. The incomes of the middle class have risen much more slowly than those of folks in the upper-income bracket, which has expanded from 14 percent of the population to 21 percent. The lower economic class, too, has grown from 25 percent to 29 percent. Indeed, 40 percent of black and Hispanic adults remain in the lower-income group. Real wages are declining, and three-quarters of Americans say their income is falling behind the cost of living.
Second, there is a huge realignment in party support. Just as in the 1970s we might have thought of the average Joe as an immigrant steelworker from Southern or Eastern Europe, some today will argue that Joe Six-Pack represents a declining demographic of red-hat-wearers, people who “cling to their guns and religion.” But this isn’t the case: The middle class has always been solidly multiracial. Although crushing inflation did not lead to a “red wave” in 2022, Republicans have been doing better with Latino voters in recent years, and President Biden’s support among black voters has dropped to 58 percent from the 90s he enjoyed early in his term.
If the Democratic Party was built by farmers and unions, it is now the party of knowledge professionals and creative types. Partisans on both sides tout their efforts to support blue-collar workers (both President Biden and former president Trump were in Michigan this week to appeal to striking autoworkers), but voting analysis tells us these individuals tend to vote Republican. Occupational class has become perhaps the most significant predictor of voting behavior.
The massive success of Oliver Anthony’s hit “Rich Men North of Richmond” suggests that working-class Joe is getting tired of being bullied, ignored, and trampled on. How that affects the 2024 presidential election will be worth watching.