To counter Xi and his junior partner in Moscow, the West needs to double down on the fight for freedom.
To counter Xi and his junior partner in Moscow, the West needs to double down on the fight for freedom.
W ith the Middle East embroiled in its worst conflict in decades and Russia’s war on Ukraine continuing, Chinese president Xi Jinping is confidently asserting his role as the leader of a new authoritarian bloc. This was on full display in Beijing earlier this week, when leaders from more than 130 countries convened to celebrate ten years of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the investment and infrastructure program central to Xi’s global influence campaign. Among the guests of honor? Vladimir Putin, in his first trip to China after launching his brutal invasion of Ukraine.
The fact that Xi would accord a place of honor to Putin signals far more than the Chinese dictator’s questionable commitment to world peace: It shows Russia’s full acceptance of its place as a junior partner in a new 21st century authoritarian alignment committed to destabilizing and degrading democracy around the world. With the world facing crises on multiple fronts in conflicts fomented by authoritarian regimes, the U.S. and its partners must take urgent steps to combat the grave threat posed to global security — and to freedom itself.
Given the steady stream of grim economic news coming out of China, this might seem like a strange argument. Surely the breakdown in the PRC’s debt-driven economic model would put a damper on Xi’s global ambitions? If that’s the case, Xi has yet to receive the memo. We would do well to remember that this is not the first time the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has navigated choppy economic waters. Meanwhile, Beijing has tweaked the BRI to be far less reliant on expensive, big-ticket infrastructure projects, and the CCP has shown no sign of giving up on its hegemonic ambitions. What’s more, the promised decoupling of China from Western economies — even where sensitive dual-use technologies are concerned — has barely kicked into gear.
Putin’s genuflection to Xi before a host of visiting dignitaries signals China’s remarkable diplomatic success in preserving, and even advancing, its vision of a Beijing-centric global order, despite the headwinds of a slowing economy and European anger at Xi’s ongoing support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The number of leaders in attendance at the forum proves that, even if Beijing is no longer writing huge checks for infrastructure, the offers of trade, training, and technology at the center of the new, stripped-down BRI still have significant drawing power.
Beijing has also been able to keep its relationships with the West largely intact despite the war in Ukraine, even as it pulls Moscow into an ever-tighter economic embrace, allowing Putin to weather the worst of Western sanctions while providing almost everything he needs to keep fighting short of heavy weapons. And all this while both provide diplomatic cover for the likes of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.
This coalescing 21st century authoritarian bloc is sowing conflict, corruption, and dictatorship across the globe. Putin and Xi both see constitutional democracy as an existential threat, and are not shy about their intent to remake the world along authoritarian lines. Beijing has even gone as far as to open a school in Tanzania meant to spread the gospel of the “China model” to ruling cadres from across southern and eastern Africa — never mind that China’s and Russia’s model isn’t even working for their own people, as their richest citizens pull up stakes for the more legally predictable safe havens of Dubai and Singapore.
To succeed in undermining the U.S.-led world order, the Sino–Russian vision of high-tech authoritarianism doesn’t have to actually deliver — it just has to seem better than the alternative. The fact that Xi and Putin can headline a conference with such global convening power despite their naked authoritarianism shows that far too many people still buy into Beijing’s and Moscow’s propaganda. It also shows that free nations globally have yet to grapple with the seriousness of this challenge, and to forthrightly make the case for the superiority of our own system, which consistently delivers greater security and prosperity.
The U.S. must pursue a clear counterstrategy or risk ceding more ground to China and its cohorts. As part of this approach, it is crucial that diplomatic, economic, and military goals are underpinned by a robust campaign to strengthen democratic institutions and cohesion worldwide as a counterweight to autocratic influence.
Current efforts are woefully behind the curve compared to the influence operations of our rivals. Although the Biden administration has taken a positive first step by centering democracy in its foreign-policy rhetoric, and Congress has set aside a modest pot of money to combat China’s influence globally, both need to do far more to rally our allies to the cause of democracy, and to channel resources to democratically minded actors everywhere. That starts with helping allied democracies in Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan defend themselves, protect their open societies, and prevail over despotic adversaries — but it does not end there.
Among advanced democracies, only the United States and Taiwan have quasi-governmental foundations like the National Endowment for Democracy, whose sole purpose is building, sustaining, and defending the world’s democratic infrastructure. Wealthy democracies like Japan, Germany, South Korea, and Australia should move beyond system-neutral terms like “development” and “good governance,” and invest in initiatives with the express, unapologetic purpose of promoting the institutions that underpin human freedom and make their prosperity possible.
If we are asking others to follow, the United States also needs to demonstrate leadership by redoubling its commitment to the cause of liberty around the world. Dollar for dollar, the money spent supporting strong democratic institutions in other countries is perhaps the most powerful deterrent we have against the likes of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The fortitude of democracies like Ukraine and Taiwan demonstrates that such systems are much less vulnerable to authoritarian subversion, and much more likely to stand strong against threatened — or actual — armed aggression.
This week’s lovefest between China and Russia will be offered up as a finger in the eye to the world’s democracies. The message it sends is that democracies are on the back foot and not up to the challenge of maintaining global stability, but autocrats are united — and have history on their side. The Biden administration must act urgently to ensure that this propaganda does not become fact.
Matt Schrader is the adviser for countering foreign authoritarian influence at the International Republican Institute. Daniel Twining is the president of the International Republican Institute.