The presidential candidate has to make the most of this opportunity, and that means putting Newsom on the defensive as often and as clearly as possible.
The presidential candidate has to make the most of this opportunity, and that means putting Newsom on the defensive as often and as clearly as possible.
B oth Florida governor Ron DeSantis and California governor Gavin Newsom have a lot riding on tonight’s prime-time debate on Fox News Channel at 9 p.m. ET. This is both men’s best chance at standing out to their respective bases as champions of their party’s values. We should expect each to come out swinging — and that means there’s a fair chance that one could stumble.
It’s unusual, but not entirely unheard of, for two prominent politicians who are not their party’s presidential nominees to debate on television. Then-governor Ronald Reagan famously took on New York senator Robert F. Kennedy in a 1967 CBS debate. Reagan’s cool, assured performance convinced even pundits that there was more to the former movie actor than they had thought.
DeSantis obviously hopes to have a Reaganesque moment in this red-state-vs.-blue-state showdown. To do that, he’ll have to do more than simply restate Republican talking points. He’ll have to do what Reagan did: show a mastery of facts and argument that few suspected he possessed.
The first place he can start is driving home California’s population decline. The Golden State is home to nearly 800,000 fewer people than it was just three years ago. Florida, on the other hand, is now the fastest-growing state in the nation, adding more than 700,000 since 2020. There’s simply no way Newsom can spin his way out of that.
DeSantis can also harp on Florida’s low taxes. California ranks 46th in the share of personal income (15.3 percent) that goes to state and local taxes; Florida is eleventh (9.1 percent). Each year, a Florida family saves more than $600 in taxes over California for every $10,000 it earns. Again, Newsom simply can’t avoid the plain facts.
Those dollars also go much further in Florida than they do in California. Median house prices are twice as high in California as they are in Florida, and it costs much more to live in that house because electricity prices are twice as high, too. A gallon of gas costs $1.69 more in the Golden State than in the Sunshine State, and food staples such as milk are also more expensive out west. Again, Newsom can’t avoid the data, so DeSantis should lay it on him.
DeSantis should avoid the temptation to harp on issues that many conservatives focus on, such as homelessness. It’s a real problem in some parts of California, but it is not a statewide challenge. Newsom can easily deflect blame for this onto local officeholders and cite the efforts he is making to improve things.
Crime is another tempting target DeSantis needs to handle carefully. It’s true that California has a much higher crime rate than Florida on a statewide basis, but that again is a local issue rather than a state one. According to CBS News, four Florida cities ranked among those with the highest murder rates last year while only one California city placed. There are also plenty of Republican-governed states with high crime rates. The theme of the event is “red states vs. blue states,” so he should not fight on ground that is hard to defend.
Newsom will obviously try to attack DeSantis on values and social issues, highlighting the various issues regarding race, education, and gender that the national media has trumpeted. DeSantis needs to be prepared to do more than simply restate Florida and conservative values, and he should resist the urge to jump down Newsom’s throat when he inevitably repeats a misstatement about Florida’s actual laws. He should take another page from the Gipper and rely on humor and deflection to parry Newsom’s thrusts.
That approach has the added advantage of subtly contrasting him with Trump. DeSantis rose to national prominence in part because of his on-camera battles with national media, but a debate stage is a different forum than a live news conference. What sounds combative when ambushed sounds angry in a set-piece format like a debate. Canada’s Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has become a master at the calm put-down of liberal attacks. DeSantis would do well to imitate him.
This debate is DeSantis’s only chance to stand on his own in a debate before the Iowa caucuses. There’s no Nikki Haley trying to woo establishment Republicans, no Vivek Ramaswamy doing whatever it is he’s trying to do. He has to make the most of this one opportunity, and that means putting Newsom on the defensive as often and as clearly as possible. If he can do that, maybe he can begin to recover some of the luster that’s faded over the year.