Nikki Haley is going to lose the New Hampshire primary; this was practically foreordained before the day began, the only question remains the margin. As Phil Klein points out, the fact that the NH primary — being (relatively) open — allows for voters outside of the hardcore party bases to participate means that it is a fascinating datamine for portents in a general election; the strong negative polarization in Haley exit-poll voters against Trump certainly suggests that Biden’s primary gameplan in 2024 (“but Trump”) still has legs.
One of the things I’ll be watching when we get final results is turnout. In Iowa, turnout was down so far compared to 2016 – a dropoff of more than 40 percent – that the decline in turnout was larger than the entire Trump vote. Trump got only about 11,000 more votes as a de facto incumbent than he did while losing in 2016.
The magic number for Trump is 100,735 voters, the number he got in 2016 in winning the New Hampshire primary by just a shade under 20 points.
@pklein is right. “This should be a five alarm fire inside the RNC headquarters.” But this is also an RNC led by a figure who presided over the sacrifice of the House, Senate, and White House in just two cycles. That same figure somehow retained her job, but only to preside over virtually party-wide underperformance in a midterm election cycle defined by historic environmental advantages on which the GOP should have been able capitalize. The alarm may be blaring at the RNC. The question is, is anyone home?
Here is another data point that is discouraging for Haley’s chances of being the nominee, but also discouraging for Trump’s general election chances. Nearly 4/10 Haley voters showed up, not because they like her, but just to cast protest votes against Trump. That’s a good part of the Biden turnout strategy in November. This should be a five alarm fire inside the RNC headquarters.
Salem, N.H. — The polls are now mostly closed.
Earlier this afternoon, Republican voter Denise Gardener told me after casting her vote for Trump that the country needs a new president who will lower gas prices and make it easier for younger Americans to buy homes. “They can’t do it with Biden in there,” she said.
Asked about Nikki Haley, the last high-profile Republican still running against Trump, Gardener said: “She’s new to me. The only things I’ve heard and seen her say were contradictory to the first thing that she says.”
Now would be a good time to point out that in 2016, Trump won independents in New Hampshire — beating Kasich (who he more than doubled among self-described moderates). So even if Trump pulls out a win in NH and assuming he still coasts the the nomination as the race moves to states with closed primaries, it’s already becoming clear that the coalition that Trump has right now is significantly different from the one that sent him to the White House in 2016. Back then, Trump appealed to an eclectic group of voters who were looking for an outsider. When I reported in NH that year, it was not uncommon for me to run across voters who were deciding between Trump and Bernie Sanders. This unorthodox appeal helped him win states including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This year, his coalition is much more narrowly tailored toward conservatives. Something to pay attention to as the year goes on.
MSNBC’s ace elections analyst Steve Kornacki reports on what looks to be an unexpectedly high turnout election. Some towns – among them, Hollis, Amherst, Hopkinton, and others – reportedly had to find more ballots to meet the demand. “These are towns with higher income, high educational attainment, and these are towns where Nikki Haley is supposed to do the best in the state,” Kornacki observed.
Even if Haley overperforms tonight, her campaign is still running into a brick wall in her home state of South Carolina. The good news for her is that the primary isn’t until February 24, so she has some time to turn things around. The bad news is that she has a lot of turning around to do. The FiveThirtyEight polling average has Trump at 62 percent in South Carolina right now, with Haley only at 25 percent.
Another bit of evidence pointing to a Trump underperformance tonight is that he is already complaining about independents (and Dems who register as independents) being allowed to vote.
