Salem, N.H. — Aidan Costa, a young voter from Salem, told me this afternoon that he voted for Donald Trump because “he did a lot for blue collar workers” during his first term. “To be 100 percent honest, I don’t like Biden in office.”
Asked about former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, he says he hasn’t “done much research” on her candidacy. But he says her debate performances didn’t leave a good impression, and that she came across as “rude” when interacting with the other candidates. “All of them are, it’s politics. But I’ve noticed that she’s kind of rude when she’s up on the debate stage.”
Just to try and give you an idea of how much the composition of the NH electorate has differed from polls. As @nrothman mentioned, early exits show the electorate was +6 independent or Democrat. But the final Suffolk poll, which had Trump up by over 20 points, assumed the electorate would be +9 Republican. That’s a net 15 point difference, which could be the difference between a Trump blowout and a relatively close race. Standard caveat that exit polls can change once they are weighted against actual results, which we’ll start to get at 7:30 (though polls won’t fully close until 8).
Jeff, ich habe nicht gewusst, dass wir heute auf Deutsch schreiben!
With reference to Noah’s point about how a Haley overperformance tonight would both prolong the GOP primary while also fixing its eventual outcome in stone, I am put in mind of the von Schlieffen-era German general staff’s maxim: Die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt. Hope dies last.
It’s a line that cuts both ways, because hope still dies.
With that – welcome to the technical beginning and functional end of the Republican primary calendar, readers! Let’s be mordant tonight.
Salem, N.H. — Earlier this afternoon Democratic voter Randy Stone told NR he wrote-in Biden “just to vote against Trump.” He added: “It would be good if Haley does well. That’s a vote against Trump.”
Trump is now complaining about independent voters in the New Hampshire GOP primary, but they were part of why he won it in 2016. That year, 42 percent of New Hampshire GOP primary voters were undeclared, and Trump won a plurality of their votes.
Nashua, N.H — About an hour and a half ago at a polling site in Nashua, National Review caught up with Dean Phillips—the Minnesota congressman who is challenging President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination this cycle. After launching his long-shot bid in late October, he’s spent the past ten weeks stumping in New Hampshire ahead of today’s unsanctioned Democratic primary. (The Democratic National Committee stripped New Hampshire of its first-in-the-nation primary status to elevate South Carolina, the state that helped Biden secure the nomination in 2020.) Phillips is hoping that a less-than-spectacular showing from Biden, who is now relying on a write-in effort to avoid a PR nightmare, will give him a boost in the other early states.
“Look, if I get in the 20s I think that’d be amazing,” he said. “Started at zero ten weeks ago, no name recognition, zero in the polls, a ragtag newly formed team without a lot of resources, without any of the party behind us. And if we can achieve that in just ten weeks, anything’s possible. And I think it’s also going to show that President Biden is a good man, but he’s weak.”
Phillips told NR he has not spoken with the White House since launching his presidential bid. “I tried contacting them twice, and he would not take the call,” he said. “I’ve not had a single conversation with any of the cabinet members or the White House.”
The early exits that indicate self-described Republican voters make up only 47 percent of the primary electorate so far tonight compared with 8 percent who identify as Democrats and 45 percent calling themselves unaffiliated voters have led some to speculate that Haley might have a shot. Let’s say these figures don’t change when they’re updated after polls close (they will) and Haley rides to a narrow victory on the backs of people who don’t identify as Republicans … that’s still a terrible narrative for Haley. Such an outcome would, however, prologue the primary on inertia alone, compelling Haley to test receptivity to her message in her home state. But if Trump spends the next month contending that Haley owes her longevity to crypto Democrats manipulating the GOP primary, it’s hard to envision a Republican primary electorate that rewards that strategy with their votes.
More early exit polling from New Hampshire: When early voters in the GOP primary were asked if they would be satisfied if Nikki Haley won the Republican nomination, 55 percent said they would be while 43 percent disagreed. Asked the same question of Donald Trump and 56 percent of GOP primary voters said they would be satisfied while, again, 43 percent disagreed. These are preliminary results and they will change when the data is updated after the polls close, but if these results are any indication, New Hampshire-based Republicans will by and large be happy with whatever happens tonight and no one will register a single complaint about the outcome… right?
Some of the preliminary exit polling out of New Hampshire looks strikingly different from Iowa’s entrance polling. For example, when Iowa’s GOP caucus-goers were asked if Biden “legitimately” won the 2020 election, only 30 percent said “yes.” Sixty-five percent said “no.” In New Hampshire, however, GOP primary voters were split down the middle at 49 percent “yes” and 49 percent “no.” When asked if they were part of the “‘MAGA’ movement,” 49 percent of Iowa Republicans said yes while 46 percent rejected the label. In New Hampshire, only 32 percent describe themselves as “MAGA.” Sixty-four percent disagree. But on the “qualities that matter most” in their candidates, Granite Staters’ responses are so far similar to those provided by Iowans. In both states, voters favor a candidate who “shares my values.” At the bottom of the list of voters’ priorities is a candidate who “can defeat Joe Biden.”