Trump and Biden have nothing less than their historical legacies on the line.
Trump and Biden have nothing less than their historical legacies on the line.
T here is something of the Thunderdome about this year’s impending presidential contest. Absent a shocking “actuarial event,” two men will enter Election Day, but just one of them will leave with his historical reputation intact. This time around, the loser will be just that — now, and forevermore.
Our current political era is marked out by an almost monarchical focus on political personalities, and yet I have seen few observers note that, by running once again for office, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are taking a profound personal risk that could have been avoided by well-timed retirement. Had Biden decided to step aside this year, he would have gone down in the eyes of his allies as the man who stepped out of the shadows to deny Donald Trump a second term, and then spent a whole bunch of money on progressive priorities. Had Donald Trump resolved to play kingmaker after his loss in 2020, he would have been able to declare that he’d done what he had come to do: Beat Hillary Clinton, secure the border, save the Supreme Court, and cut taxes. For at least one man, November’s verdict will permanently foreclose such a legacy.
If he loses, Joe Biden will no longer be the guy who beat Donald Trump. He will be the guy who beat Donald Trump, was president for four years, and then, because he could not accept that he was an unpopular, senile failure, allowed Donald Trump to become president again. At present, both the Democratic Party and the broader center-left are pretending manfully that Biden is a brilliant and spritely young lad, whose stewardship of the United States has inspired awe in everyone to the left of Ted Nugent. If he loses, this will change instantly. Like the GOP’s, the Democratic Party’s coalition is chaotic and irrational, and thus primed to fracture badly in defeat. Should Biden’s astonishingly selfish decision to run for a second term result in the return of Donald Trump, the recriminations will be swift and the internecine warfare will be brutal. At the very least, such a result will lead to a loss of trust in the party’s establishment of the sort that the Republicans have suffered. “You gave us Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden,” the cavilers will say, “and in exchange we got two terms of Trump.”
And if Donald Trump loses? Well, then he will no longer be the guy who beat Hillary Clinton and prevented her from turning the country to the left, but the guy who beat Hillary Clinton, did some good things, and then handed control of the country over to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for eight years — during which time his achievements were mostly undone. As a political proposition, “but Gorsuch” is a good argument — especially when it is accompanied by “but Kavanaugh,” “but Coney Barrett,” “but tax cuts,” and “but border security.” It will be less persuasive if the influence of Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Coney Barrett has been wiped out by two new Democratic appointees; if the tax cuts that Trump signed are slashed to pieces in 2027; and if the border remains wide open by design. At present, Trump’s many flaws do not seem to matter much to his popularity, but this is mostly the result of the mistaken belief that he is a winner. Should Trump lose for a second time in a row, the re-evaluation will come more quickly than he expects, and it will not be kind.
Only the most remarkable of men are able to grasp that their roles in history have already been performed. Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump are remarkable men. Outside of the small cliques of political obsessives who inexplicably adore them, they are seen by their supporters as necessary evils whose presence is to be grudgingly tolerated given the perfidy of the other tribe. In the country at large, the news that we have to suffer through another election featuring both Trump and Biden has been met with the sort of resigned groaning that is usually prompted by the news that there is an animal-rights activist at the door. Even before the election, it is rare that one meets a voter who is enthused by the choices on offer. Once the contest is over, it will be a veritable impossibility — and the aspirant who loses will be forced to start looking at impenetrable compounds high up in the Swiss Alps.