First, the good news: Donald Trump’s Monday-morning statement on abortion reminded pro-lifers that he could turn up the rhetorical heat on Democrats on these issues, as he did in 2016 debates. “Democrats are the radical ones on this position because they support abortion up to and even beyond the ninth month,” he said, “the concept of having an abortion in the later months and even execution after birth.” He is right that Democrats almost uniformly oppose any legal protection for unborn children at any stage of pregnancy, and right as well that they have sometimes voted against protections even for children who survive attempted abortions. He could have strengthened his point about the Democrats were he to remind voters that they now, again nearly unanimously, favor taxpayer funding for abortion.
But the Democrats’ position, however appalling and deceptive, is at least a position. Trump is transparently trying to avoid taking one. “Always go with your heart, but we must win,” he said, in a bit of empty rhetoric that accurately summarized what preceded it. Trump wants to leave abortion to state electorates while declining even to advocate that they protect life. Trump was specific about which abortions he would permit — those for rape, for incest, and to save a mother’s life — but declined to endorse or even mention any proposal to protect unborn children, even one as limited as a ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
Trump thanked the justices who overturned Roe for their courage, and accepted that as the man who appointed three of them he was “responsible” for the outcome. But he framed the Dobbs decision as nothing more than constitutional hygiene, returning power to the states, as “scholars on both sides” wanted. In truth, Dobbs was silent on the state-vs.-federal question, and the Republican Party platform has advocated federal protections for unborn life for decades.
Trump repeatedly said, “You must follow your heart on this issue,” and in saying so, he is partly aligning himself with America’s median opinion on abortion, which places sentiment above philosophical consistency. But he is also reflecting his party’s overwrought fear of pro-choice voters. The fact remains that during the vaunted pro-choice backlash of the past two years, not one pro-life senator or governor has lost his office in an election. Republicans retook the House mere months after Dobbs.
It is reasonable to argue that opposition to abortion — particularly when it has seemed dismissive of public ambivalence on the subject — has harmed Republican politicians, costing them gains they could have made in 2022. But of course it is also true that Trump himself and his various manias have cost Republicans elections. If it happens again, we can be sure he will blame it on pro-lifers.