It definitely feels like Republican optimism about Georgia is building, and with good reason. With 55 percent of the vote in, Trump leads, 55 percent to 44 percent. But so far there are no results from DeKalb County, where in 2020, Joe Biden won with 308,162 votes to 58,377 votes for Trump, a 249,785 vote margin. So at some point tonight, a big pile of Harris votes are going to be added to the total.
There are still very few precincts reporting in any competitive House districts, so impossible to say what’s going on for control of the chamber yet.
It’s far too early to make any definitive statements, but Harris cannot be thrilled with her performance so far in the Sun Belt states where polls have closed. Her path to 270 is becoming increasingly dependent on the Rust Belt.
“The GOP holds the governorship of Vermont with a huge majority” is one of those weird sentences we get to write every two years (short terms there) because Phil Scott is such an electoral anomaly.
The New York Times forecast just went live and, based on the results so far, estimates Trump has a slight edge, 274-264.
The Florida Republican blowout — even though it was expected — is still simply astonishing to behold for anyone whose formative political memory was Bush v Gore in 2000.
In Virginia, with 30% reporting, Hung Cao is drawing 47.3%, almost even with Trump’s 47.5%, but Tim Kaine is running two points ahead of Harris, 52.7% to 50.8%, and with Trump unlikely to win Virginia, Cao needs to do better than that. Still, a respectable showing for a candidate who hasn’t gotten much national press.
We have the opposite story in Texas, albeit with only 16% reporting, as Ted Cruz is running about two points behind Trump. Trump leads 50.3% to 48.5%, while Colin Allred leads Cruz 50.1% to 48%.
With 31 percent reporting in Ohio, Bernie Moreno is running ahead of Trump. Sherrod Brown is up 51.3% to 46.3%, while Harris is up 53.2% to 46%. A good sign for Moreno, with a lot of redder areas yet to be counted.
Florida is not a swing state.