Democrats had hoped Rick Scott was vulnerable; Republicans never believed it. The Republicans were right.
West Palm Beach — There’s been a lot of media focus this cycle about how the Trump campaign has made a deliberate effort to leverage the former president’s persona this cycle with the McDonald’s visit, garbage truck stunt, and hours-long appearances on “bro” podcasts. I asked Trump adviser Tim Murtaugh about this strategy earlier tonight inside Trump-Vance election night party venue here in Florida.
On the Golden Arches stunt: “The reason why it was just a Grand Slam for him is because he walks in there, he’s going to McDonald’s right, to ostensibly work a shift, right? And he’s wearing his navy blue suit and a white shirt and a red tie — he went in there as Donald Trump. He’s not going in there pretending to be a McDonald’s employee…He lets people in on the fun, right? He’s not in there pretending or putting on some kind of character. The only suit he ever wears is Donald Trump, and that’s why it works for him. And people get it. And people — they know he’s a really rich guy and a very successful businessman, they know that, but people see that he’s able to connect with working people, with regular Americans.”
Added Murtaugh: “We will never see a politician like Donald Trump in this country again.”
As of right now, Florida has counted 80 percent of its votes. No other state has counted more than 35 percent. That’s over 9 million votes tallied and reported in Florida already. Any state could count like Florida if it wanted to. Read Ryan Mills from 2022 on exactly how they did it.
The Nation magazine, September 30: “Could Harris Take Florida and North Carolina? The Data Suggests She Can.”
CNN, 8 p.m., the moment polls close in the Florida Panhandle: Trump wins Florida.
So far, the story of the night has been Donald Trump improving on his totals in the rural counties that have closed so far. There were early signs that Harris could counter this advantage by improving on Joe Biden’s performance among suburbanites, but that story is becoming complicated. In northern Virginia, and with nearly all the vote in, Loudon County has shifted to the GOP. Biden carried the state in 2020 by nearly 62 points, but Harris leads Trump today by a smaller margin (57 to 40 percent). It’s still early, but Trump’s showing in the rural counties appears to be just a touch stronger than Harris’s performance in the suburbs.
Obviously one can’t extrapolate too far from Florida, but we are in the high eighties now of percentage of votes cast. Here’s how the bellwether districts are doing, if you compare the House vote to 2020 presidential:
FL-9: Biden 58.2% to Darren Soto 55.4%
FL-13: Trump 52.9% to Anna Paulina Luna 54.7%
FL-15: Trump 51% to Laurel Lee 55%
FL-27: Trump 49.9% to Maria Elvira Salazar 60.1%
Yes, those are House incumbents. It’s still a good sign for the GOP, at least in the Sunshine State.
Rick Scott won the 2010 gubernatorial election by 1.15 points.
He won the 2014 gubernatorial election by 1.07 points.
He won the 2018 Senate election by 0.13 points.
He is currently up by 10 points with 75 percent reporting.
I’m not going to call out a random person on Twitter by name, but check to see what percentage of the vote is in before you excitedly share that your preferred candidate is ahead 66 percent to 33 percent, because it really doesn’t mean that much with one percent of the vote in.
Fingers crossed, but some positive signs for pro-lifers in Florida. The radical pro-abortion measure is currently at 57.6%, which would be short of the 60% threshold to see it adopted. There’s a long way to go, as just 61% of the overall vote is in — but given that the remaining votes are same day votes that tend to be more Republican, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic.
Florida is also a top destination for people from foreign countries, Jim, so it doesn’t seem to be automatic that immigration turns polities blue, either . . .