My guess is we’ll know the presidential outcome before we know who won the House majority.
Like Mark Robinson in North Carolina, another potential weight around Trump’s neck doesn’t seem to be dragging him down. Kari Lake is losing by 6 points to Democrat Ruben Gallego for Senate in Arizona, while Trump has a slight lead over Harris, with 50 percent reporting.
With 2/3 of the vote in statewide, here’s how Republican Senate nominee Eric Hovde is doing in Wisconsin compared to Senator Ron Johnson two years ago. Johnson barely won, 50-49.
Milwaukee County: Hovde 30%, Johnson 30%
Dane County (Madison): Hovde 24%, Johnson 23%
Waukesha County (western Mil. suburbs): Hovde 59%, Johnson 63%
Washington County (NW of Mil.): Hovde 70%, Johnson 71%
Brown County (Green Bay): Hovde 60%, Johnson 55%
Kenosha County: Hovde 50%, Johnson 52%
It’s going to be very close.
Democrats have been much too confident that the unpopularity of bans on abortion would translate into wins for their candidates. The 2022 and 2024 results in Ohio and Florida show that they don’t necessarily. Both states have in recent years seen majorities vote for abortion access in referenda. Both states nonetheless voted for Republican candidates by large margins.
I am frankly beyond irony at this point, watching Dearborn, Michigan come in shockingly solid for the Republicans.
AP calls North Carolina for Trump. That’s the first battleground state the AP has called tonight in the presidential race.
West Palm Beach — Just caught up with Oklahoma’s cowboy-hat wearing Senator Markwayne Mullin a few moments ago here in Florida as things continue to look better and better for Trump tonight. Asked about what Kamala Harris’s biggest campaign misstep has been over the past few months, “a lot” came to mind but her interview on “The View” takes the cake. (When asked what she would’ve done differently from Joe Biden, she responded with: “There is not a thing that comes to mind.” )
“No one thinks the country is going in the right direction,” Mullin tells National Review. “And when you say that, all the other rhetoric about, ‘I’m going to do this on day one and I’m going to do this on day one,” means nothing because what you’re saying is you agree with all those decisions” that Biden has made.
Ohio Democrat Marcy Kaptur won her first House election in 1982, and she has been in Congress ever since. Her district has become redder in recent years, but in 2022 she had the good fortune of running against J.R. Majewski, one of the crazier GOP House nominees from that cycle, and she defeated him easily. This time, she faces state legislator Derek Merrin, who is putting up a much better showing and leading by about 1,000 votes with 89 percent reporting. But this race is still too close to call, and Kaptur may again escape defeat on the strength of Democratic votes in the Toledo area.
It’s really important to watch the patterns of what votes are outstanding. In both Nebraska and Iowa, the cities report first and the rural areas trail. That’s why initial deficits for Zach Nunn in IA-3 and for Deb Fischer in Nebraska’s Senate race are not that alarming.
Below is an email that Kamala Harris campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon just sent to all staff, trying to keep up good spirits as battleground-state election returns keep looking better and better for Trump tonight:
Subject: What We’re Seeing So Far
Team,
As polls close across the country, I wanted to give everyone an update on what we’re seeing. As we have known all along, this is a razor thin race. Thanks to this amazing team, we have seen incredible turnout across the Battleground States, and the closeness of the race is exactly what we prepared for.
While we continue to see data trickle in from the Sun Belt states, we have known all along that our clearest path to 270 electoral votes lies through the Blue Wall states. And we feel good about what we’re seeing.
- In Pennsylvania, we overperformed turnout expectations in Philadelphia, and overperformed in our early vote expectations in Bucks County. We don’t have Election Day results from Philadelphia, but we do know that we overperformed turnout expectations there, and have seen especially high turnout in places with large non-white and student populations. We expect to see higher turnout in Philadelphia than in 2020. Outside of Philadelphia, we have limited data on turnout and support right now, but what we do have is tracking with our expectations. We are awaiting more results (like everyone else!), and hope to get a closer read in the coming hours.
- In Michigan, we are awaiting a significant amount of votes to come in. The City of Detroit won’t be reported out until roughly midnight, but we have seen strong turnout throughout early vote and Election Day there. Other results in Michigan are harder to parse, since results are coming in more piece-meal than elsewhere.
- In Wisconsin, we know there is a significant amount of vote remaining in Dane and Milwaukee counties, and we are seeing signs of strong performance in the WOW counties, where we have partial data. We don’t expect complete results from Wisconsin until tomorrow morning between 3 am – 5 am.
Polls just closed in Nevada and Arizona so, as expected, it will be a while before we have more information from both states.
We’ve been saying for weeks that this race might not be called tonight. Those of you who were around in 2020 know this well: It takes time for all the votes to be counted – and all the votes will be counted. That’s how our system works. What we do know is this race is not going to come into focus until the early morning hours.
We’ll continue to keep you all updated as we get more information. This is what we’ve been built for, so let’s finish up what we have in front of us tonight, get some sleep, and get ready to close out strong tomorrow.
JOD