Incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro is 13 points behind Democrat Josh Riley in New York’s 19th House district with about 2/3 of the votes in. That’s in the running to be the first flip of the night in the House, but still too early to tell.
DecisionDesk calls VA7 for Eugene Vindman, the semi-celebrity Democrat trying to succeed Abigail Spanberger. Still no party flips in the House.
Earlier tonight, I scoffed at the Democrats who convinced themselves they had a shot in Florida. Now I will recall Bloomberg columnist Nia-Malika Henderson’s October 4 column, “A Democrat Could Actually Beat Ted Cruz in Texas.” No, he couldn’t. At this hour, Colin Allred is trailing Cruz by more than 839,000 votes — 53.7 percent to 44.3 percent. She wasn’t alone; a lot of national media treated Allred as if he was a serious threat, often pointing to polls that had Allred within a few percentage points. But in Texas, each percentage point is about 100,000 to 110,000 votes.
Wisconsin Senate is going to be very close. With 84 percent reporting in Waukesha County (western suburbs of Milwaukee), Republican Eric Hovde is up 59-39. In 2022, Republican Ron Johnson won Waukesha County with 63 percent of the vote on his way to winning the state 50-49.
With 48% reporting, there’s still a lot of Arizona outstanding, especially the rural parts of the state. But while Trump trails just 50% to 49.1%, Kari Lake is down 53.4% to 45.3%. So, Lake getting pulled across the line – as some late polls suggested – looks unlikely at this juncture.
NBC has called Iowa for Trump, who seems to be cruising to an easy victory there. So we can fairly say the Selzer poll was in fact a huge outlier.
NBC just projected wins for Cruz in Texas and for Trump in Iowa. Sorry Selzer.
We’re officially in the part of the evening where the leads are going back and forth continuously in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in both the presidential and Senate races.
I’m seeing some chatter marveling that Trump is still ahead in Virginia, 49.6 percent to 48.7 percent. Don’t get your hopes too high, Republicans; only 62.5 percent of the vote is in in Fairfax County, 70 percent of the vote from Alexandria, and only 32 percent from Arlington County. There’s a giant pile of Democratic votes still waiting to be counted.
The New York Times needle now predicts Trump will very narrowly win the popular vote!