I’d expect a race call for Republican Bernie Moreno in Ohio soon. With 70 percent reporting, and Trump having already won the state, Moreno is up by 5 points on Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. The final RealClearPolitics polling average had Moreno up by 1.7 points. There was significant movement late in the race, as Moreno trailed in the polls for much of the campaign. If Moreno gets across the line, it will be in no small part because of significant investment from conservative activists such as Americans for Prosperity Action, which said it knocked over 960,000 doors in Ohio and contacted over 2 million voters, which is roughly 1/4 of the registered voters in the state.
Exits show Trump at 45% among Hispanic voters — which, were it to hold, would be the highest ever recorded for a Republican presidential candidate. This would upend 30 years of political assumptions dating back to the Prop 187 campaign in California in 1994, which held that Republicans would have to soften on immigration or risk making elections unwinnable due to this growing demographic. Yet Trump ran on a mass deportation pledge and is enjoying record performance among Hispanics.
Disgraced North Carolina Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson is currently running 11 points, or almost 350,000 votes, behind Donald Trump. But Trump retains the lead over Harris in N.C., with Decision Desk having already called the state for him. Robinson tanked his own chances of winning, but he didn’t drag Trump down with him, and North Carolinians continue to be comfortable with ticket-splitting. Term-limited Democratic governor Roy Cooper won twice and was very popular in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president or Senate since 2008 and where Republicans control the state legislature with large majorities.
I thought Cruz might be in trouble in 2018, but this year he has a) a better national environment than he did back then, b) a presidential race to help him, and c) a less-hyped opponent. I’ve never thought he was in danger this cycle and it’s looking like he wasn’t.
Senate watch:
PA: 32% in, Trump 47.5%, McCormick 45.8%
MI: 14% in, Trump 45.7%, Rogers 44.5%
WI: 23% in, Trump 48.8%, Hovde 47.2%
It’s early and these splits may change with different parts of the state, but all three Senate candidates look like they will need Trump to win the Blue Wall states by more than a hair.
Phil, it’s possible that many Puerto Ricans who live in the mainland U.S., almost by definition, don’t believe the island is a very nice place to live, and so wouldn’t be too bothered by someone saying so, even if offensively.
West Palm Beach — The crowd is in high spirits here as Trump-Vance election night party guests sip on wine and beer as they watch the returns on the screens. Typical stuff so far: loud boos when the moderators say a state looks good for Harris, loud cheers when election forecasters say a certain county or state is looking bright for Trump. Lots of folks in here wearing MAGA hats they picked up off the tables near the entrance.
There was a lot of focus on the Puerto Rican vote after the MSG rally — but the early results we have from Florida’s exit polls showed a significant shift — toward Trump. While Harris won the demographic 52-43, Biden won the same group 69%-31% in 2020. It’s possible Trump would have done better had it not been for the joke, or that Puerto Rican voters in Florida are different than they are in the hotly contested Pennsylvania. However, at a minimum we’re not seeing evidence of the large groundswell toward Harris that had been reported anecdotally through the media.
The only competitive House district with more than 75 percent reporting right now is Virginia’s 7th, where Democrat Eugene Vindman leads Republican Derrick Anderson 52-48. It seems like there are more Republican votes than Democratic votes outstanding at this point, but still too close to call. Overall House control remains a complete mystery.
It looks like Hogan ran significantly ahead of Trump in the state, Dominic, just not enough given how blue it is.