After several cycles of remarkable electoral luck and timing, three-term Pennsylvania Democratic senator Bob Casey Jr. finally met his match and was defeated by Republican businessman Dave McCormick. Only Casey refuses to admit it, claiming that uncounted provisional ballots could erase what currently stands as a 0.5 percentage-point lead of 33,000 votes for McCormick. This is beyond mere statistical improbability to the point of impossibility, given where the outstanding votes remain, and everyone except Casey and his lawyer Marc Elias have already acknowledged it — including his own fellow Democrats. It’s time for Casey to give up the ghost and bow out with what grace he retains.
The Casey team’s argument is that there are 111,000 or so provisional or military ballots left to be counted in the race. With a 33,000-vote gap, Casey is staking his chances on winning a full 65 percent of remaining votes — if there even are that many. (“Provisional” ballots are so called for a reason.) But the math does not work for him. Only one county with a significant number of outstanding provisionals (Philadelphia County, literally the city itself) was voting for him above that 65 percent margin, and only 12,000 votes remain there to be counted. In Allegheny County (primarily the city of Pittsburgh), 22,000 votes remain, but Casey won there with only 59 percent. (These victory margins in Pennsylvania’s twin Democratic strongholds, much smaller than in past elections, help explain why Casey lost.) Elsewhere, outstanding votes come from either equally fought (Erie and Bucks County) or massive pro-McCormick territory (Westmoreland County). There is no plausible way for the count to yield anything save a few thousand extra votes added to Casey’s final margin of loss.
After delaying a week to allow Senator Casey a decent interval of mourning — or perhaps to indulge a forlorn hope — Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer has finally broken down and invited Senator-elect McCormick to Washington, D.C., for orientation meetings. (Typically for Schumer, he did so only once similarly close winner Ruben Gallego’s race in Arizona was called for Democrats.) Outgoing senator Kyrsten Sinema endorsed the move. The race is over, and it is time for Bob Casey Jr. to concede to McCormick, and to reality.