Four policies in particular represent an opportunity for the new administration.
Four policies in particular represent an opportunity for the new administration.
P resident Donald Trump’s new, multiracial, working-class coalition won’t be satisfied with a repeat of the GOP’s typical Romney-Ryan economics. A new poll shows there are a number of things Trump could propose that would help those voters and also be politically popular.
The poll, conducted by Echelon Insights, asked a representative sample of voters about a host of proposed domestic policy items. Four stood out: avoiding tax increases, increasing the child tax credit, expanding access to apprenticeships, and creating a new, targeted, paid family leave program.
Tax hikes are certainly a possibility as the individual income tax components of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts expire at the end of the year. While one might think it would be a no-brainer to extend them, the administration must also contend with a federal budget deficit that is ballooning to unprecedented highs in a noncrisis situation. That fact creates lots of pressure on government to prioritize reducing the deficit over keeping the tax cuts in place.
The poll finds that the American public, however, including large numbers of Democrats and a majority of Republicans, prefer avoiding tax hikes over reducing the deficit. When asked to rank which of three options for fiscal policy — avoiding tax increases, avoiding funding cuts to important programs, or avoiding growing the budget deficit — they prefer, 46 percent chose avoiding tax increases as their top priority. This total included 53 percent of Republicans and 40 percent of Democrats, which shows the bipartisan appeal of what is often portrayed as a partisan issue. Only 34 percent of Republicans prioritized avoiding growing the deficit, indicating that budget-cutters in Congress might need to reconcile their hopes with voter preferences.
The Trump individual tax cuts reduced marginal rates, expanded the standard deduction, and increased the child tax credit. While there’s probably some room to fiddle with specific items, such as reducing or eliminating some itemized deductions claimed mostly by the wealthy, keeping these three elements intact would ensure that almost all Americans — and all working-class Americans — avoid a tax hike.
That’s not enough for the working-class element of Trump’s coalition, however. They are competing for jobs against immigrants, legal and illegal, while still recovering from Biden-era inflation. Additional help is what they expect and need.
Expanding the child tax credit is one thing that can help most of them. Inflation has already eroded the value of the current $2,000 per child credit. Increasing it above $2,500 would restore that value; indexing the new, higher amount to inflation would preserve it. The poll finds that increasing the child tax credit garners bipartisan support. Seventy-five percent of Republicans and 89 percent of Democrats would back this move. The level of support is higher among parents in both parties, including 86 percent of GOP parents and 93 percent of Democratic moms and dads. Moreover, 75 percent of Republicans and 86 percent of Democrats favor indexing the child tax credit to inflation.
The topic of apprenticeships is another one that enjoys bipartisan support. A whopping 91 percent of Republicans and 98 percent of Democrats favor the idea — even if it costs the government more money. Eighty-one percent of Republicans back increasing funding for apprenticeships, and 85 percent support giving employers tax incentives to provide apprenticeships (more than 92 percent of Democrats support each of these ideas).
Government-funded apprenticeships would be a good, working-class-friendly policy because they would help level the playing field with regard to college-bound students. The federal government spends tens of billions of dollars each year on grants and subsidized student loans for people to attend college but a mere fraction of that for people who want to learn a trade or skill independently. Boosting support for young people who would benefit from the noncollege route could save money in the long term by reducing college-related payments while giving these individuals a faster, sturdier leg up toward well-paying jobs.
President Trump’s proposal to make tips tax-free shows that he recognizes that some people in low-paying, insecure jobs with uncertain hours need more help. Anyone in such a job would cite another concern, too: the inability to take paid time off to take care of oneself or a sick family member. Most salaried employees have this, but many unsalaried ones don’t. A federal program that would give them equal access to this benefit would surely alleviate some of their financial and psychological pressure.
The idea of such a targeted program also received bipartisan approval in the Echelon poll. Seventy-four percent of GOP and 94 percent of Democratic voters would support a national program to guarantee access to paid family and medical leave for all employees. Supermajorities of each party favor such benefits for people to care for family members with serious health conditions, newborn children, and their own health.
Republicans won’t be able to keep and expand Trump’s new coalition by returning to their old habits. There are many feasible and popular ways to help these new GOP voters without creating top-down, superexpensive programs. Congressional leaders and Trump’s budget gurus should pick a few and make them happen.