The only way the United States can build materiel at scale is to harness the power of our commercial manufacturing industry.
The only way the United States can build war material at scale is to harness the full power of our commercial manufacturing industry with a Manufacturing Ready Reserve.
T he United States has a strategic problem. Our support of Ukraine and Israel in conflicts that have dragged on for years has revealed a painful truth. A national strategy that relies on stockpiling war material is insufficient for protracted conflict. If we believe that future conflict could last longer than a matter of weeks, we will need a new approach to sustain combat operations.
The cache of American weapons supplied to Ukraine and Israel has been consumed at such a rapid rate that commanders are raising the alarm. Admiral Paparo, head of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, warned, “It’s now eating into stocks, and to say otherwise would be dishonest.” Paparo’s concern isn’t theoretical. In the event of an invasion of Taiwan, which China has long characterized as inevitable, America’s ability to sustain a defense against the PLA is uncertain.
A recent Army Science Board study found that in a future war, certain categories of stockpiled munitions and key materials would be depleted within a few days of the initiation of hostilities and would take years to replenish. That’s because our Defense Industrial Base has devolved into a small number of specialized manufacturers with limited production capacity and no clear path to surge manufacturing. The current system will lead to delays in material availability and put American lives at risk.
To succeed against peer competitors, we must be able to produce defense materiel at 10–25 times the scale of current production. Equally important, to deter conflict with peer competitors we must demonstrate we can manufacture the items required to fight. The only way the United States can build war material at scale is to harness the full power of our commercial manufacturing industry.
To achieve this, we should immediately commit the nation to creating a Manufacturing Ready Reserve (MRR). The Manufacturing Ready Reserve is a resilient and scalable national manufacturing network designed to respond rapidly and grow quickly in the event of a large-scale military conflict — a Freedom’s Forge using digital technology for the 21st century.
The key to rapidly expanding our manufacturing capability lies with small and medium-sized commercial manufacturers that are not currently part of the Defense Industrial Base. Over 98 percent of the 244,000 manufacturers in the United States employ fewer than 500 workers; around two-thirds of the 13 million men and women employed in manufacturing work for these smaller companies. Entrepreneurial mid-market manufacturers constitute the majority of the nation’s production capacity, and most of these businesses are not in the traditional Defense Industrial Base. We must identify these companies, categorize their capabilities, and incentivize them to participate in the national manufacturing mission.
Developing a national Manufacturing Ready Reserve is the fastest and most capital-efficient way to both prepare for and deter potential conflict. The alternative — building new factories and paying for surge capacity — is financially and politically untenable.
This will be a challenging national undertaking, but software and AI can be leveraged to connect the commercial manufacturer ecosystem with Defense procurement organizations. We also have time-tested models to build upon. In the U.S. Merchant Marine, commercial ships register to participate in military transport operations. The Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) creates a pool of civilian cargo aircraft that can be mobilized in times of national need. The Individual Ready Reserve (IRR) provides an extended roster of former service members who can be called back onto active duty in the event of a conflict.
In each of these cases, civilian capacity voluntarily joins a pool from which war planners can draw to provide surge capability. The participants — whether ships, aircraft, or people — provide baseline information, commit to certain call-up procedures, and meet established standards. Volunteers are incentivized to join these programs through both direct incentives and other mechanisms, such as access to contract opportunities that are exclusive to program members. The Manufacturing Ready Reserve could operate under similar principles with incentives that both encourage participation and facilitate more manufacturers supporting today’s defense manufacturing needs.
Congress could make membership in the Manufacturing Ready Reserve an accelerated pathway to peacetime manufacturing contracts with the Department of Defense (DoD). This should be done in conjunction with policy initiatives to lower the regulatory barriers to entry for new manufacturers seeking to do business with Defense. Congress could also offer tax breaks to businesses that achieve the requisite cybersecurity certifications or make investments in technology and workforce programs that the nation wants its manufacturers to pursue.
The Manufacturing Ready Reserve is the most capital-efficient way of preparing the nation for future conflict. It also serves the secondary benefit of directly investing in our commercial manufacturing businesses and the communities that rely upon them. The creation of a Manufacturing Ready Reserve would not only expand defense manufacturing capacity; it would, by itself, serve as a deterrent by signaling that America is serious about preparing for future conflict. The clock is ticking. Tomorrow would not be too soon to start.