How the Israel-Iran War Could End

W ith the U.S. strike on the Iranian nuclear sites, it is surely time to think about how the war with Iran might end.

President Trump has asked for “unconditional surrender,” following a president he has not before used as a model: Franklin D. Roosevelt. Continuing and expanded Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear, military, police, and government sites might not convince Iran’s “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to seek a way out. Israeli attacks on petroleum-related targets might; a future without exporting oil could lead Khamenei to fear an economic collapse that could lead to widespread public unrest. No one knows better than he how restive and how tired of this regime the population is. And neither he nor anyone else knows what combination of heightened public opposition and weakened government institutions could light the spark of its undoing. 

If all of that is combined with a U.S. strike against the Fordow nuclear site, Khamenei and his advisers may be looking for a way out. “Unconditional surrender” presumably does not mean that Khamenei must resign, nor that the regime must fall — not to Donald Trump, anyway, a man who seems allergic to regime change. It means surrender of the nuclear-weapons program lock, stock, and barrel — no enrichment, no possession of huge amounts of highly enriched uranium useful only for nuclear weapons, no cascades of thousands of centrifuges, no nuclear-weapons experiments or studies or labs.

Could the Ayatollah ever agree to this? Two precedents are worth mentioning. First, we should recall that back in July 1982, early in the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein offered a cease-fire and withdrawal of Iraqi forces from Iranian soil. The then-supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, rejected it. But in the internal debate among Khomeini’s top advisers, several urged him to accept it and stop the war — including the man who was then president of Iran, Ali Khameini.  

Second, Khomeini famously agreed to an end to war six years later, in 1988, and accepted U.N. Security Council Resolution 598. This is when Khomeini so famously spoke of drinking from the poisoned chalice.

It’s worth looking at the full text of the Khomeini statement distributed to the Iranian people, remembering that he was Khamenei’s mentor and predecessor. This text is courtesy of the indispensable MEMRI—the Middle East Media Research Institute.

At present, after our military men, both of the army and the Revolutionary Guards, who are experts at warfare, openly admit that the Islamic army [of Iran] will not attain victory soon, and considering that military and political officials who support [the regime of] the Islamic Republic do not view a war going forward to be in the best interest of the country, and strongly asserting that 1/10th of the weapons placed by the Eastern and Western Arrogance [i.e. the USSR and the U.S.] at the disposal of Saddam [Hussein, Iraq’s then-ruler] cannot be bought, anywhere in the world, for any price, and considering the horrifying letter from the Chief of the IRGC [Yahya Rahim Safavi], which was one of dozens of military-political reports I received after the recent defeats, and [in light of] the acknowledgement of the Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff [Hashemi Rafsanjani] saying that the IRGC chief is one of the only commanders who believe in continuing with the war, provided that war supplies are made available, and considering the enemy’s widespread use of chemical weapons, and having no means to neutralize them, I accept a ceasefire, and in order to clarify the reason for making this bitter decision, I refer to several points in the letter from the IRGC chief, written on June 23, 1988.

It is possible that we will not achieve any victories for the next five years. It is possible that if we have the means to purchase [what is needed] over the next five years, we will gain the power to carry out destructive operations or counterattacks. And [in five years,] in 1992, if we have 350 ground divisions, 2,500 tanks, 3,000 cannons, 300 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters… which are required for the war during that period, with God’s help we may be able to carry out offensive operations. [The commander] says that it should be noted that the IRGC must grow to seven times its current power and that the army must be increased to two and a half times its size. He also mentioned, of course, that we must expel the U.S. from the Persian Gulf, otherwise we cannot succeed. This commander considered the most important factor in the success of his plan to be budgeting and preparing facilities in a timely manner, and noted that it is unlikely that the government and central command could meet their obligations. Of course, while mentioning this, he added that we must fight again, and that this is no longer a mere slogan.

The Prime Minister, [following the] statements by the Ministers of Finance and Budget Planning, announced that the regime’s financial situation is at a deficit. Official war authorities say that the cost of the weapons we have lost in just the most recent defeats is equal to the annual budget allocated to the IRGC and the army. Political authorities say that since the people realized that a quick victory will not be achieved, their desire to join the front lines has diminished.

You, my dear ones, know more than anyone that this decision is like deadly poison to me, but I am satisfied by the will of Almighty God and will give all I have to protect [God’s] religion and the [regime of] the Islamic Republic.

Oh God, we have risen up for the sake of Your religion, we have fought for Your religion, and we accept the ceasefire in order to defend Your religion.

Oh God, You are witness that we are not compromising with America, the Soviet Union, and all the superpowers of the world for even one moment, and that we see compromising with the superpowers as a betrayal of our Islamic principles.

Oh God, we are strangers to the world of polytheism, unbelief, and hypocrisy, to the world of money, power, and deceit. Please help us.

Oh God, throughout history, when the prophets, the first [imams], and the religious scholars decided to reform society, to combine knowledge and action, and to create a society free of corruption and ruin, they were met with resistance from the Abu-Jahels and Abu-Sufyans of their day.

Oh God, we have sacrificed the children of Islam and our revolution for You, we have none but You, help us carry out your commandments and laws.

Oh God, I beseech You to grant me shahada [martyrdom] as soon as possible.

I have said that a meeting must be held to explain the ceasefire to the people. Beware, hotheaded aggressors may use revolutionary slogans to draw you away from what is best for Islam. I say clearly that all your efforts should be directed at justifying this [the ceasefire]. Any deviation is forbidden, and will incur a response. You know that the regime’s leaders made this decision with reddened eyes and hearts full of love for Islam and our Islamic homeland. Look to God and know that all that is happening is for the best, peace be unto us and God’s servants.

Not a happy man, and God granted him death one year later, in June 1989 (heart attacks, not martyrdom). Today’s situation is different in fundamental ways, and a week or two of Israeli bombing does not compare to eight years of war and Saddam’s use of chemical weapons. But that statement suggests that there is a precedent for Khamenei to follow, especially if there is U.S. intervention. I will not try to write in the manner of a Persian Shia cleric, but the key points of what he could say are these:

• “The Imam (Khomeini) taught us that there are moments when difficult decisions are needed, no matter how painful. Leaders have the responsibility to save the Revolution and our true Islamic society.”
• “Today the two greatest enemies of Islam, the Zionist entity and America, have combined to attack us. And why? Based on their lie that we were seeking nuclear weapons. We have never sought nuclear weapons and there is a fatwa against it. It is against Islam.”
• ”We have opened our country to international inspections in the past and we agree to continue this, because there is nothing to be found. We have never thought of nuclear weapons.”
• “What we agree to now is unfair and wrong, which is an end for now of our scientific experiments and our efforts to guarantee adequate sources of power to our people. We agreed to this poisonous demand for one reason: out of love for the Iranian people and the desire to end the suffering the Zionists and Americans are imposing on you. I have insisted that we will accept such arrogance and unfairness only when they end their unlawful, inhuman sanctions that try to starve you, my beloved people. And we have, through your strength and loyalty, forced them to accept this condition.”

Maybe it would sound better in Farsi. Of course, this is just one way the war might end. It might end with the collapse of the regime, an excellent outcome. It might end with a simple cease-fire after the destruction of Fordow, when Israel says it has run out of targets and both sides agree to stop firing. It might end with a deal between Iran and the United States, negotiated between Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, wherein Iran agrees to zero enrichment only once a regional enrichment center is established. That particular outcome would be a disaster — an excellent deal for Iran, because such a regional center is highly unlikely and Iran can delay it endlessly. 

But my point here is that Iranian history and Khamenei’s own life history provide a model for escape. His mentor drank from the poisoned chalice and the regime survived. Let’s hope he thinks about that rather than a very non-Islamic outcome: Gotterdammerung.