Gavin Newsom’s Achilles’ Heel

C alifornia Governor Gavin Newsom wants to be president and has completed a remarkable turnaround over the past five months to make himself a favorite for the Democrats. However, with Nancy Pelosi’s announced retirement, the politician who represents perhaps Newsom’s biggest liability might be coming to Congress next year: State Senator Scott Wiener.

As recently as June, Newsom’s outlook for the Democratic nomination was bleak. He was coming off a number of crushing setbacks: the disastrous Los Angeles wildfires, his widely disliked turn as a podcaster, oil refinery closures that threatened to spike California gas prices, and massive “structural deficits” in his state budget. He had ticked off government workers’ unions with pay freezes, Planned Parenthood by trying to siphon state family planning funds for other purposes, and the broader left with his flip-flop on Medi-Cal for illegal aliens. These were all faults that opened him to attacks from both Republicans and, more critically for purposes of a Democratic primary, his fellow Democrats.

With Newsom’s California approval numbers down to 44 percent, his odds of becoming president seemed bleak. At that time, I wrote: “His last, best shot is to do something that galvanizes Democrats to rally around him, to make himself a hero to liberals nationwide for the one issue that looms largest in Democrats’ minds: stopping Donald Trump. He must get into, and win, a political showdown with Trump.”

Well, he did it. Proposition 50, the state constitutional amendment to further gerrymander California’s congressional districts, has completely flipped the script. Newsom found a way to present himself as Donald Trump’s chief national foil, and he won a significant victory. It took him less than three months to get his redistricting plan from its initial introduction in August to final passage in November; it passed with 65 percent of the vote.

Newsom won by turning the measure into a referendum on Trump, continuing the Democrats’ yearslong theme that the president is a “king” threatening “democracy,” this time with his push for red states to aggressively redistrict. He was able to recruit heavy Democratic hitters from around the country to cut ads for his pet project, including Barack Obama and potential 2028 rivals Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The fall “No Kings Day” rally was significant for one reason above all: It helped Democrats turn out the vote-by-mail vote for Prop 50. If the measure survives legal challenges from Californians and the Trump DOJ, the newly redrawn map could deliver Democrats five additional House seats in 2026 and control of the chamber, further lifting Newsom’s stock within the party.

In fact, after a Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals panel put Texas’s pro-Republican redistricting plan in jeopardy, Newsom looks even better for Democrats. Newsom and the Democrats initially structured Prop 50 so that it would institute its new congressional map only if Republicans installed their new map in Texas. At the last minute, Newsom eliminated this triggering mechanism, making Prop 50 create new maps regardless of what Texas does.

Obviously this undercuts Newsom’s entire “pro-democracy” narrative around Prop 50 — that it was a defensive measure to restore “democratic” balance in response to illegitimate Republican gerrymandering. There is also the chance that the Fifth Circuit’s reasoning could also eviscerate California’s maps, under the argument that they give excess consideration to race. That risk aside, it was smart politics to detach California’s map from Texas’s, and it could give the Democrats a massive boost in 2026..

Will Newsom still have to reckon with his failures? Sure. But the attacks in the Democratic primary will be dampened because of his Prop 50 success. A flipped House and a win over Donald Trump would cover a multitude of sins, and politics is a “What have you done for me lately?” endeavor. What Newsom has done lately for Democrats is extraordinary.

But another piece of news from this November could present a challenge for the governor. While Newsom has ingratiated himself with the base, he remains vulnerable in a general election. One of his greatest vulnerabilities could be headed to Congress as a result of the 2026 elections, a personification of the extreme liberalism that Newsom tries to cover up with a facade of moderation: California State Senator Scott Wiener. If Wiener succeeds Nancy Pelosi in Congress as he aims to, he will be a walking, talking reminder to the country of Gavin Newsom’s extreme policies.

Will Swaim, the CEO of the California Policy Center and the host of National Review’s Radio Free California podcast, gave a detailed breakdown of some of Senator Wiener’s worst legislative achievements. This catalogue of horrors is so awful that Wiener, the moment he sets foot in Washington, should immediately vault over AOC, Ilhan Omar, and Maxine Waters to attain the title of Worst Member of Congress. You should read Will’s piece in full, but the following are a sample of Wiener’s greatest legislative hits, bills he authored that became law:

• SB  145 (2019): The law gives judges discretion to drastically reduce punishments for sex offenders, including offenders who had sex with a 14-year-old, with a ten-year or greater age difference.
• SB 132 (2020): This bill allowed men to be housed in women’s prisons on the basis of an alleged transgender identity. The law has facilitated the alleged rape of female inmates by males in California’s women’s prisons.
• SB 357 (2021): The law legalizes “loitering with intent to commit prostitution.” This provision makes it incredibly difficult for police in California to detain sex trafficking victims and thereby rescue them from the control of their pimps. The law has led to an explosion of sex trafficking in Los Angeles, as detailed by the New York Times Magazine last month.
• SB 107 (2022): This bill allows children from other states to flee their parents in order to receive transgender interventions in California without parental consent.

There is also the factor of Scott Wiener being an openly gay man, but not an individual who can present himself as mainstream on the question of gay rights. Wiener frequently marches in a San Francisco-area “kink festival” in a bizarre leather outfit: leather vest, leather tie, no shirt. He authored legislation — signed by Jerry Brown — to reduce penalties for persons who knowingly infect a sexual partner with AIDS. He cannot present himself as a buttoned-up, Pete Buttigieg figure who simply wants gay marriage and tolerance. He is an obvious radical whose predilections seem to inform his public policy.

You get the picture. Scott Wiener is a radical, with fringe views on LGBT issues, criminal justice, parental vs. children’s rights, and more. Nevertheless, he would be of little consequence if it weren’t for Gavin Newsom. All of the bills in the list above — and several others — became law only because of Gavin Newsom’s signature. Wiener proposes, Newsom disposes — but in this case, Newsom owns most of Wiener’s insane ideas.

Wiener might face a challenging Democratic primary, but there are signs of possible coordination between the Wiener and Pelosi camps that could help him cruise to victory. Nancy’s daughter Christine — a prominent strategist for Democrats’ efforts statewide — will not run for her mother’s position, as had been speculated, instead opting to be the shoo-in for Wiener’s soon-to-be-vacant state senate seat. With her mother’s name and political clout, she would have been Wiener’s toughest challenge. The choice not to run against Wiener might indicate a kind of nonaggression pact, if not outright Pelosi support. AOC’s former chief of staff, tech millionaire Saikat Chakrabarti, has announced his candidacy, but it seems unlikely that Pelosi would want to bequeath her seat to a new Squad member via endorsements or donor assistance. While Wiener may be challenged by Pelosi acolyte and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, particularly if she receives a public endorsement from Pelosi, Wiener is the obvious successor.

He would almost certainly make noise in Congress, and quickly. Wiener was hardly shy when he joined the state senate, introducing multiple bills in his first year and making a name for himself as someone who pushed the envelope with ambitious, extreme legislation. He would almost certainly provide Republicans with more fodder to use on the national stage. If JD Vance, Marco Rubio, or Ron DeSantis end up cutting ads against Newsom in 2028, Wiener should prominently feature in most of them. He is Gavin Newsom’s leather-bedecked Achilles’ heel.