Russia Is at Hybrid War with NATO

R ussia’s massive and growing hybrid attacks against European NATO members must be called what they are: deliberate and ongoing acts of war against Western nations that support Ukraine.

With the full-scale phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war soon to enter its fourth year, Vladimir Putin is so frustrated that, according to multiple reports, he is turning on his inner circle, including longtime senior confidant Sergey Lavrov. These reports have fueled speculation about turmoil inside the Kremlin. But Putin’s frustration is understandable, given that his spies and generals promised him Kyiv would fall in a week, and many Western intelligence services expected the same. Instead, due to gross incompetence, widespread corruption, and extremely low morale, he finds himself in a quagmire of his own making. According to Ukrainian and Western intelligence estimates, more than 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded and more than 10,000 tanks and other major ground combat vehicles destroyed. Putin’s only strategy seems to be more of the same, with one major exception.

This year, the Kremlin has dramatically increased Russia’s hybrid warfare efforts against NATO. Across Europe, suspected Russian sabotage has hit arms factories that provide Ukraine with critical munitions. Defense industry executives and officials have been targeted for assassination or intimidation. Railways and logistics hubs that transport military supplies have been knocked offline by mysterious local attacks. Key undersea cables and other underwater infrastructure have been damaged in what many Western officials describe as deliberate acts of hybrid warfare. Russian drone surveillance of NATO military installations and critical infrastructure has become a regular occurrence, and Russian cyberattacks on critical systems are now at record highs. Multiple Russian-linked saboteurs have been apprehended in Europe this year alone and charged with carrying out these operations.

Of course, Russian officials deny any role in the rash of attacks. But this is the same regime that vigorously denied any plans to invade Ukraine, until they did.

Truth means nothing to Putin and his henchmen. Russia is one of the few nations in the world with a long record of using targeted assassinations as a tool of domestic and even foreign policy. It is a lawless, mafia-style state where the only real rule of law is whatever is best for Putin. So, the Kremlin will continue to deny its growing hybrid warfare campaign, which it hopes will reduce NATO support for Ukraine.

This makes the stakes in Ukraine clear. Putin is not looking to seize just a few Ukrainian territories or even the more than 20,000 children that Russia has abducted from the war zones since the full-scale invasion began. He wants to establish a puppet government in Ukraine, just as he has in Belarus. He wants effective control of the entire country. Nothing less. That is why, to date, Putin has effectively rejected all of President Trump’s territorial peace proposals. For Putin, this war has never been about taking some Ukrainian territory — it’s about total control.

We can expect Russia’s hybrid warfare efforts to escalate and expand in the months ahead. Fortunately for the free world, Russia’s economy is under severe strain. After a short-term wartime surge, most independent forecasters see Russian growth slowing toward zero in 2025 and potentially turning negative in 2026, with high inflation and chronic labor shortages. Key sectors such as banking, mining, consumer retail, and transportation are under intense pressure, and many of Russia’s largest banks have formally requested government bailouts this year. Before the full-scale invasion, Russia’s National Wealth Fund held roughly $110 billion in liquid assets, more than 5 percent of 2021 GDP, but it has been drawn down heavily to finance the war. Analysts now warn that its liquid assets could be largely exhausted within the next year or two if current spending continues.

With time working against him, Putin is playing one of his last cards: hybrid warfare. Instead of being a sign of strength, it is powerful evidence that he knows he is losing. He knows Russia will struggle to fund the war if the West maintains sanctions and shuts down Russia’s shadow fleet. He is desperate. He is now pushing all his remaining chips into the middle of the table. But to paraphrase President Trump, he just doesn’t have the cards.

As long as we keep our resolve in support of our brave Ukrainian partners — and as long as they continue to defend their families, future, and fatherland with such incredible courage and skill — Vladimir Putin will lose not only this hand but this war. Yes, Ukraine must overcome the institutional corruption that is part of its 70-year Soviet legacy. But the people of Ukraine are determined to put their Soviet past completely behind them. With our help, they can and they will.