At present, the quickest way to win a voter’s heart is to tell him that everything is awful — or, better still, to tell him that things were wonderful at some point in the recent past, but that his paradise was ruined by greedy and unscrupulous forces that must be summarily stripped of their political power. The details of this claim change — as do the villains — but, invariably, the gist remains the same: Life in 2026 is Bad, and only by following the prescriptions of this or that politician can the United States be returned to sunlit uplands.
Last week, though, we got some news that ought to put a dent in that depressive outlook: Per a study by the Council on Criminal Justice, the murder rate in the United States dropped an astonishing 21 percent in 2025. Not only does this represent the largest single-year reduction on record, but the level may now be as low as it has been since 1900. And it’s not just murder. The study also found that carjackings were down 61 percent, that robberies were down 23 percent, and that both assault and shoplifting were down 10 percent.
Commenting on his institution’s report, the CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice suggested that “it’s extremely difficult to disentangle and pinpoint what’s actually driving the drop.” Perhaps so. Irrespective, this latest reduction is part of a salutary trend that began in the mid-1990s and, with the exception of the Covid-era spike, has continued unbroken ever since. Relative to today, the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s were remarkably violent, with the murder rate swinging between eight and ten per 100,000 residents. In 2025, that rate was four per 100,000 residents — an extraordinary improvement. For reference, the last decade in which the rate was close to four was the 1950s.
There are likely many causes of this change. Since the 1960s, we have become progressively better at policing trouble zones — an effort that has been aided by improved technology and the use of statistical tools such as CompStat. Since the 1980s, the incarceration rate has risen sharply, taking more repeat offenders off the streets. Over time, the United States has grown older and less active, and many young people have spent more of their lives on screens. Simultaneously, America has grown richer, and, in most periods, unemployment has been low. Locks and alarms have improved, while surveillance has become more common. And lead paint and leaded gasoline, which some studies suggest caused impulsivity and aggression in those who were exposed to them in childhood, have all but disappeared from the market. Improvements in medical care have also lowered the murder rate.
Going forward, it ought to be our priority to discover which of these variables have been the most responsible and then to build on the considerable progress that has been made. For now, though, we should simply rejoice. Crime is a scourge on civilization, and murder is the greatest thief of them all. It may not please the perpetual cynics or ease the boredom of the nothing-ever-happens crowd, but to have more than halved the rate of unlawful killings in the space of just 30 years is a fabulous achievement indeed.