Tim Walz’s Unsurprising Two-Step from the Political Stage

T im Walz’s withdrawal from the race for governor of Minnesota was not a surprise to those who have followed events closely. His administration has been consumed not just by allegations of criminal fraud, but by actual proof of theft amounting, probably, to billions of dollars. The fraud is centered in Minnesota’s Somali community and goes back a long way. A decade ago, Somalis went to prison for childcare fraud, collecting government money for “caring for” children who didn’t exist.

For the last four years, the most prominent scandal involved a defunct organization called Feeding Our Future. The nonprofit tapped into the federal school nutrition program, administered by Minnesota’s Department of Education, that was intended for poor children. Those cases were investigated by the FBI and prosecuted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office. Walz’s state authorities had nothing to do with either uncovering the crimes or punishing the criminals, nearly all of them Somali. The Feeding Our Future fraud amounts to an estimated $500 million. So far, 78 people have been criminally charged, with 57 having been convicted by juries or pled guilty.

But the fraud is endemic across a broad range of welfare programs. One Medicaid program, intended to help people find housing, was shut down entirely when federal investigators found that a “vast majority” of the more than $100 million spent went to criminals for fictitious claims.

Most recently, Assistant U.S. Attorney for Minnesota Joe Thompson, who has led the Feeding Our Future prosecutions and other fraud investigations, told reporters that in recent years, $18 billion has been spent in Minnesota on various Medicaid programs, of which, Thompson said, at least half was siphoned off by criminals. More prosecutions are coming. There will be news stories about multibillion-dollar frauds on Governor Walz’s watch continuously from now until the election in November.

All of this was too much for the national Democratic Party. Democrat-friendly outlets like the New York Times and the Washington Post printed stories and op-eds harshly critical of Governor Walz. Pressure mounted behind the scenes. National Democrats were not only concerned that the fraud scandals could cause Walz to lose his race for governor; having Walz at the top of the ticket also endangered their chances of holding the Senate seat now occupied by the retiring Tina Smith, which is also up in 2026. So the handwriting was on the wall.

Walz met with Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday. Hours later, word emerged that he was pulling out of the governor’s race. By Monday morning, Walz was reading a statement to the press announcing his withdrawal.

Walz went out in the manner that has become familiar over the last eight years. Dishonest to the end, Walz gave a statement that was hyper-partisan, mostly a denunciation of President Trump and Republicans generally. He accepted no responsibility for the crimes that devastated his administration, instead pretending that he somehow had been instrumental in uncovering and prosecuting them.

Multiple news outlets report that Klobuchar is likely to replace Walz in the governor’s race. This probably is a decision that has already been made behind closed doors, although a caucus and endorsement process is yet to come, along with a primary. Other contenders might emerge. But Klobuchar is the Democrats’ strongest candidate, and if she wants the nomination, she will most certainly get it.

Assuming she runs, Klobuchar will be the favorite in the general election. Democrats hope that giving Tim Walz the kid-glove Joe Biden treatment will put the fraud issues behind them. But it may not be so easy.

The dollars stolen by Minnesota criminals have been mostly federal — money appropriated by, among others, Klobuchar. Minnesota’s example has led investigators in other states to look into their own versions of Medicaid and other federal programs. Already, reports of fraud are emerging. More will come out over the next ten months.

Klobuchar has been voting annually for Medicaid spending that approaches $1 trillion. What has she done to put procedures in place to ensure that those dollars were being spent properly, and were not being stolen? Nothing. The Minnesota scandals have revealed incompetence in St. Paul, to be sure, but Republicans can argue that they also point to incompetence in Washington.

Moreover, fraud is by no means the only issue to bedevil the Walz administration. By every metric, his eight years as governor have been a disaster. Minnesota’s economy has declined, its public schools have gone downhill, violent crime has risen, and residents are fleeing Minnesota. Klobuchar will be pressed for solutions to these problems, and she has none. Republicans can argue that she has been AWOL, pursuing small-ball politics in Washington while her home state burned.

And Klobuchar may not be the powerhouse that some believe. She has not faced a serious challenge in many years, but her winning percentages have been declining. Against an unusually weak Republican in 2024, she received only 56 percent of the vote.

The context of Minnesota’s 2026 election will be a steady drumbeat of stories about billions of dollars being stolen under the Tim Walz administration in the most brazen manner imaginable. By November, as a result of that and other issues, Minnesotans may be ready to vote for real change.