Is Trump dumb and distracted, or a wily super genius? X is split.
Is Trump dumb and distracted, or a wily super genius? X is split.
I f you follow the big brains on X, you’ve probably gleaned two different views on the Strait of Hormuz difficulties.
From the smart kids who got a degree in international relations from Georgetown and now post on X from their job at the mall phone store: The administration was completely surprised when Iran tried to restrict shipping. It went like this:
SecDef: Mr. President, the Supreme Leader of Iran, who is now, we believe, the senior member of the parliament building’s janitorial staff — hold on, I’m getting an update. Ah — there was an airstrike, and the Supreme Leader is now the second in command of the janitorial staff. But we are confident he will go ahead with plans to close the Strait of Hormuz.
POTUS: And what’s a Hormuz? It’s straight? Is there a crooked part we can bomb?
SecDef: It’s a critical choke point for the shipment of oil. The world economy will grind to a shuddering halt if it closes, and oil prices will jump at the pump and goose inflation, causing domestic political difficulties as well as inflaming tensions with nations both friendly and hostile.
POTUS: Can we just rename if the Strait of America? Are there any plans for that?
SecDef: Unfortunately, there are no plans, whatsoever, for the Strait of Hormuz. We had to go to Wikipedia to find it. We never considered that this might happen. It’s caught us completely by surprise and we have absolutely no plans to fall back on. It was a masterstroke on their part, sir — we didn’t see it coming, and now we’re scrambling in a confused and disorderly state that only underscores the resilience of the regime.
That’s what some people on X think is going on. Then there’s another opinion from people who do not start by assuming a baseline of Evil and Stupid, which says it possibly went like this:
SecDef: Mr. President, the surviving IRGC command — working autonomously, as we discussed yesterday, due to the automatic delegation of authority built into the system in case of a decapitating strike — are making moves to close Hormuz. Any thoughts?
POTUS: Let ’em. For now. Do I need the oil? I don’t need the oil. I have plenty of beautiful oil. Light sweet crude, from Texas. They love me in Texas. Probably not so much in Austin, but they have a lot of problems in Austin, ask anyone. China needs the Strait open. Maybe China should help. Why don’t we ask them?
SecDef: Sir, I’m not sure coordination with the Chinese Navy is a —
POTUS: Xi won’t help. He knows we can handle it. He’ll look weak if he plays second banana and he’ll look weak if he says no. Just put it out there. Ask everyone if they’d like to help. Europe can’t. The Brits can’t get out of port without making sure none of the sailors made a bad Facebook post about immigrants, it’s terrible. Starmer, he has a lot of problems. France, I’ve got to give them credit, they can help. But let everyone see who’s got the capabilities. Let’s handle the insurance thing too so it cuts the legs off European financial institutions. Then we let some oil out, just a little, and China realizes we control the choke point now. Take a look at what’s needed to secure Kharg Island, bomb it for some headlines.
SecDef: Sir, I believe you’re referring to Plan 17c_4, which I included in your briefing yesterday.
POTUS: I am, I read it, great plan, we have the best plans, but 17c_4 calls for strikes on Kharg production facilities, and I think we should hit supporting infrastructure. Leave the rest intact. They’re going to need it.
SecDef: That’s plan 17c_4b. I agree.
POTUS: Okay, that’ll do. You want anything? Diet Coke? I got a button right here. I press it, they bring it. Perfectly cold. You’ve never had a Diet Coke like this.
SecDef: That would be great, sir.
The truth might be in-between, but we’ll have to wait for the post-administration tell-all insider books that get a $4 million advance and sell 640 copies.