The initial skirmishes that presage a return to combat operations may have already begun.
The initial skirmishes that presage a return to combat operations may have already begun.
T he untenable status quo in the Strait of Hormuz that has prevailed since the pause of high-tempo combat operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran on April 8 is coming apart.
The diplomatic track is proving to be a cul-de-sac. This weekend, Donald Trump rejected the latest Iranian proposal for a long-term peace deal, the details of which are disputed (even by Iranian officials). The latest Iranian overture was described by those familiar with it as a softening of the Islamic Republic’s posture — possibly a reflection of the immense strain the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has placed on the regime. But Tehran continues to insist on preserving its right to enrich uranium, the total withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, and significant sanctions relief in exchange for withdrawing from the strait. Trump said no.
The president insists that time is on America’s side in this standoff, but he’s feeling the pressure, too. With global energy prices continuing to rise, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — the only coherent power center left standing inside Iran — deaf to the pleas of the beleaguered Iranian people, the standoff has put Trump in his own bind. Both Washington and Tehran’s interests are conspiring to create the conditions in which a return to high-tempo fighting is increasingly likely.
The initial skirmishes that presage a return to combat operations may have already begun.
On Sunday, multiple cargo ships near the disputed waterway reported coming under attack from “unknown projectiles” and small boats, attacks that the IRGC likely directed. Within hours, Trump revealed that the U.S. would embark on “Project Freedom,” an operation designed to help “guide” ships out of the strait.
Initially, confusion reigned. Some speculated that Project Freedom was little more than an effort to repackage a proposal to restore traffic through the chokepoint by coordinating “diplomatic operations” and providing vessels with “real-time maritime domain awareness.” The president had not proposed deploying U.S. warships to conduct escort missions, U.S. officials assured reporters.
CENTCOM subsequently clarified, however, that there would be a military component to this operation. Guided-missile destroyers, as well as over 100 aircraft and 15,000 service personnel, are deployed to facilitate transit through the strait. The Pentagon revealed on Monday morning that U.S. Naval assets were “transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” successfully escorting “2 U.S.-flagged merchant vessels.”
A shift in American tactics has accompanied this new approach. According to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, the “rules of engagement for U.S. forces in the region have been changed.” U.S. forces are now authorized to engage hostile Iranian elements attempting to disrupt traffic in the strait, such as “fast boats” and “Iranian missile positions.” The IRGC, meanwhile, cannot tolerate what looks like a nascent effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through force. “We warn foreign armed forces, particularly the US aggressor army, that if they attempt to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz, they will be attacked,” said one IRGC commander.
Avenues for diplomacy are not yet entirely closed. The United States is apparently participating in confidence-building measures, of which the reported quiet transfer of an Iranian tanker and its crew to Pakistan for return to Iran is likely representative. “It’s either we’re looking at the real contours of an achievable deal soon, or he’s going to bomb the hell out of them,” one U.S. official told Axios.
It seems like “bomb the hell out of them” will be necessary. Reopening the strait through force — fraught though such an operation would be — would deprive the IRGC of its last point of leverage over the West. Allowing the remnants of Iran’s military to control the strait would undermine America’s role as the foremost guarantor of global maritime navigation rights and all but ensure that America’s adversaries would reprise Iran’s gambit in the strait. Both Trump and Iran’s decimated leadership are talking tough, but they all need relief from the effects of this blockade — and soon.
And yet, despite the apparently unshakable belief that Donald Trump is only moments away from suing for peace, the president has remained steadfast. Many speculated that Trump would settle for a face-saving end to the conflict — a new Obama-style nuclear deal distinct only insofar as it had Trump’s name on it. The president’s critics presumed that he lacked the stomach for an operation that would put American soldiers and sailors at real risk.
But Trump did not use the cease-fire to wiggle out of the war. Rather, he spent that period conducting the war by other means — both through the blockade and with the inauguration of an economic campaign designed to throttle Iran’s access to illicit revenues abroad. A full-scale effort to reopen the strait would mean the collapse of the cease-fire. As the Wall Street Journal’s Matthew Continetti observed, destroying Iran’s coastal drone and missile teams, sinking fast boats, clearing mines, and providing naval escorts is not without risk. But it can be done. America has done it before.
If a new phase of this conflict is in the offing, the president would be well advised to properly inform the American public of what is coming and the burdens they will be expected to bear. He might even solicit the U.S. public’s support for an initiative that could very well see the Iranian regime neutered. Without the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Republic cannot plausibly claim to have secured a strategic victory in this war. Its government is decapitated, its military in tatters, its heavy industry in ruins, and its showpiece nuclear weapons program reduced to rubble. Even if Iran retains nominal control of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles for the time being, it lacks the capacity to enrich further, and it cannot rebuild that program without alerting the West. Reopening the strait would be a real victory for Trump, and he seems content to hold out for it.
But Iran will not give Trump that victory at the negotiating table. It will have to be won, and Trump seems inclined to win it. It should be clear by now that, when it comes to Iran, the president is not bluffing.