There was nothing wrong with Donald Trump visiting Xi Jinping in Beijing — “jaw-jaw is better than war-war” and all that. But it would be extremely dangerous to think that such meetings might change the way that Xi views the U.S. or, for that matter, the world. Whatever the pleasantries exchanged in Beijing, China remains set on annexing Taiwan and replacing the U.S. as the world’s leading power. Meetings such as in Beijing (and possibly in Washington in September) should, in the tradition of the old Cold War summits, be focused on stopping competition turning into conflict.
Anodyne comments from a Chinese spokesman suggest that some progress had been made in that respect: The two leaders “agreed to strengthen communication and coordination on international and regional issues,” language that was echoed elsewhere.
Overall, little changed. Tariffs were not, the president says, discussed, but Taiwan, unsurprisingly, was. In response to Xi, Trump reiterated America’s longstanding strategic ambiguity over how far the U.S. would go to defend the island. That was the right thing to do. Letting Xi dissuade him from approving a $14 billion arms deal with Taiwan would not be. The president seems in no hurry to come to a final decision on this package, telling reporters that “the last thing we need right now is a war that’s 9,500 miles away.” The “right now” might imply that nothing will be concluded until after the Iran war is over.
Trump should not have talked the deal over with Xi, let alone, as he appears to have done, in some detail. The question of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is meant, under long-standing convention, to be solely between Washington and Taipei, and with good reason. The faintest hint that China has any say offers Beijing an opportunity to test U.S. willingness to stand by Taiwan.
The president said that China undertook not to send weapons to Iran, which we hope that he does not believe. His claim that China wants to see an opening of the Strait of Hormuz is credible, although there is no indication that it will do much or anything to help achieve that aim. Until that changes, we see nothing to gain from lifting sanctions on Chinese companies that buy Iranian oil, something the president is contemplating.
According to Trump, Ukraine was discussed: “It’s one [conflict] that we’d [both] like to see settled.” We hope that, in saying so, the president was just going through the diplomatic motions. Supporting Russia’s war effort serves China very well.
One key difference between this cold war and the last is that we had few commercial relations with the Soviets. That’s certainly not the case with China. Reflecting much greater realism about Beijing (low bar) than earlier this century, there has been a significant decoupling. More needs to follow, particularly where dependence on China has created strategic vulnerability. Rare earths come to mind, but there are plenty of other examples.
Progress has been made in this area, but the two economies are still too closely intertwined for America’s good. Moreover, given the way that Beijing uses China’s businesses to further its geopolitical ambitions, U.S. companies would do well to remember that when doing business in or with China, different rules apply. Today’s big contract could all too easily be tomorrow’s hostage to fortune. True to form, Trump has been talking about the deals that had been or would be agreed to in the wake of his visit. These included an order for 200 or more Boeing jets. This has yet to be confirmed by China, but if it is, we hope that Boeing’s management has carefully weighed the risks.
Trump’s delegation was accompanied by a large number of CEOs, including Elon Musk and Apple’s Tim Cook. Apple and Tesla are heavily exposed to China, so it is understandable that the two went along. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang also came along. Nvidia is keen to sell its H200 chip to China, something that the administration has unwisely approved, but Beijing, keen to build self-sufficiency in this area, is standing in the way. For his part, Xi told the visiting CEOs that the door to business will “open wider.” That’s how traps work — for a while.
Trump, to his credit, did raise the case of Hong Kong’s 78-year-old Jimmy Lai, Beijing’s best-known political prisoner, who is now serving a 20-year sentence. He clearly received a chilly response. Xi is who he is, and Jimmy Lai is who he is, and he is the better man.