Will Putin Lose Transnistria, Too?

V ladimir Putin has been on a losing streak of epic proportions these past four-plus years. Not only has his “special operation” in Ukraine gone spectacularly wrong, but he continues to lose geopolitical partners, including Syria, Venezuela, and Armenia. Now, it appears he may soon lose both Cuba and Transnistria, the tiny breakaway “republic” the Kremlin helped set up in 1992 by backing pro-Russian separatist forces in a civil war in Moldova.

Transnistria, with less than 400,000 inhabitants and a land mass of only 1,600 square miles, is located between Ukraine and Moldova. It has continued to exist only due to Russian military support, but its continued existence as a Russian puppet state and ally is now in doubt given Russia’s weakened state.

Russian casualties in Ukraine are now approaching 1.2 million killed or seriously wounded. The “special operation” that was supposed to be over in a week has dragged on for more than four years. The Russian economy is shrinking, as more and more money is devoted to the war instead of private investment, health care, education, social services, etc. The Russian people are turning against the war as ever more sons and grandsons are fed into the meat grinder that is the Ukrainian battlefield. Ukrainian drones and missiles have disabled at least 40 percent of Russia’s oil and gas export infrastructure. The war that most Russians once considered far away is now striking home with successful drone attacks on Moscow and St. Petersburg as well as Russian military bases east of the Ural Mountains, more than 1,000 miles away. Putin was even forced to significantly scale back the usually massive Victory Day parade on May 9 due to the very real threat of successful Ukrainian drone strikes.

The Russian economy is in shambles as large-scale labor shortages, double-digit inflation, and a rapidly falling ruble eat away at productivity and purchasing power. Widespread corporate bankruptcies are being averted only by ever larger government bailouts, and basic services such as internet connectivity and regular busing are increasingly limited.

These problems are so severe that credible reports are now surfacing of a potential coup against Putin led by his own generals. The fact that Putin has dramatically ramped up his already-powerful security precautions gives credence to these reports.

However, much less reported on are Putin’s continuing losses on the global geopolitical front. The past four years have seen a dramatic reduction in the number of reliable Russian allies worldwide. While never large, such allies are now in the single digits. The loss of Syria, despite long-term support for its bloodthirsty dictator Bashar al-Assad, was particularly devastating for Putin given its location and the substantial number of Russian forces it once housed. But the losses of Venezuela and Armenia in the past few years have also badly hurt Russia. With Cuba and Iran now teetering on the edge of regime change, Putin will most likely lose another ally or two in the next few years.

The few remaining Russian allies such as China, North Korea, and Belarus have all taken notice. Putin’s unwillingness, or perhaps inability, to support his longtime allies in Venezuela or Iran when they begged for military support was a clear sign of Russian weakness that other countries have noted.

Now, Russia faces the threat of losing Transnistria, a nation Russian armed forces created in 1992 by supporting Transnistria separatist forces as they battled the government of Moldova. For 34 years, Russia has used Transnistria to destabilize Moldova and Ukraine, efforts that dramatically increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Neither the international community nor the United Nations recognizes Transnistria, and due to economic and demographic failures its population, like Russia’s, is shrinking rapidly.

Things are changing fast in Transnistria. Ukraine and Moldova have shut their borders with the breakaway republic and have declared its pro-Russian senior leadership all persona non grata. Russia, already greatly weakened by its massive losses in Ukraine, appears either unwilling or unable to support Transnistria leadership any longer. Even if they were inclined to help, the only way Russia could provide support would be a massive — and hugely risky — airlift over Ukrainian territory, as land routes are now sealed. With Russia having lost approximately 300 aircraft this far in its war on Ukraine, it is highly unlikely the Kremlin will risk more to supply a weak and failing ally.

Despite widespread Russian interference and disinformation campaigns in the run-up to the Moldovan parliamentary elections on September 28 of last year, pro-EU candidates routed the pro-Russian parties. Moldovan democracy was strengthened, and the European Union took note.

The EU is now considering doubling security assistance to Moldova with the goal of its reintegrating Transnistria. Moldovan President Maia Sandu recently reaffirmed the goal of signing an EU accession treaty by 2028, which would not be possible without the reincorporation of Transnistria.

Net-net: The loss of yet another Putin ally, this time in Russia’s own backyard, is highly likely. In President Trump’s words, Putin is running out of cards both on the domestic and international front. Let’s hope Trump and his advisers recognize reality and push harder for democracy, freedom, and the rule of law in Ukraine, Moldova, and Russia.

Gregory Slayton and Sergei Ivashenko are co-authors of the recent book Portraits of Ukraine: A Nation at War and are giving all profits from book sales to pro-Ukrainian charities.