His career as an elected Democrat appears to be nearing its end. His GOP ‘convention’ speech was just another sign.
His career as an elected Democrat appears to be nearing its end. His GOP ‘convention’ speech was just another sign.
T he Republican “midterm convention” kicked off last night in Dallas, Texas, with a yuge speech by President Trump wherein he promised to bribe all Americans with $5,000 just so long as they return a GOP Congress to Washington this November. Since nobody will ever see a dime from this — you’re still waiting for your DOGE savings checks and tariff rebates, after all — there is little need to waste time on fantasy. (Besides, my colleague Charles C. W. Cooke already eloquently denounced this pander; anything I might add would be superfluous.)
Rather, there were only two important takeaways out of last night’s get-together: (1) On evidence, Ken Paxton has all the charisma and human warmth of a soiled janitor’s mop; (2) one way or another, Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman will no longer be an elected Democrat come November 2028.
The inevitability of it all now seems striking, after Fetterman famously beat the hapless Dr. Mehmet Oz in the race to replace Pat Toomey in 2022, all while suffering a catastrophic stroke. Since his election and recovery, he has ditched his original progressive backers and made a path straight toward the center of his party, most notably with his fierce support for Israel and his contempt for the democratic socialists currently threatening to seize control of his party’s agenda.
But Fetterman’s videotaped appearance last night at the GOP midterm convention — introducing a speech by his Republican Senate counterpart Dave McCormick with warm praise, and making an appeal to common ground among Trump’s most MAGA of supporters — betokens something different, evidence of an approaching final split. Fetterman’s words were clear enough:
A big room of Republicans in Dallas! Yes, I’m Senator John Fetterman, Pennsylvania. Yes, I’m a Democrat. Why am I here talking to you today? Because well, I’m a common-sense Democrat. I’m always going to stand with America, I’m always going to reject the extremes in socialism, and that anti-American way of life. Dave McCormick is the kind of senator who gets the job done, and he’s going to fight for Pennsylvania. I’m proud to count him as my friend. Right back over my shoulder, that’s the iconic U.S. Steel mill. And that’s exactly the kind of thing that we’ll work together and we’ll work with President Trump to fight and defend the Steel way of life, right here in the Steel Valley. I have this opportunity to introduce this great American, a great senator, and yes he is in a different party, but I’m proud to count him as my great friend.
A fine encomium indeed. Needless to say, he will never be forgiven for it by Democrats, most of all the sorts of frothing progressives who supported him so vociferously in 2022 only to realize they got a political pig in a poke. The knives have been out for Fetterman within the Democratic Party for well over a year now, and his appearance at the midterm convention followed the Wall Street Journal’s dropping a well-sourced article (sourced from Fetterman’s many enemies, that is) accusing him of being an absentee senator. There will be more in coming years, surely.
Pennsylvania has closed primaries. Anyone who thinks that John Fetterman will survive a Democratic one in 2028 (as Trump is still in office, and while Democrats are selecting their presidential nominee, no less) is being unserious. The only question that remains is whether Fetterman (1) retires; (2) runs as an independent; (3) switches to the Republican Party.
We can probably rule out the third option. Fetterman votes like a Democrat 75 percent of the time in any event, and the full leap to the GOP would be both out of character for him as well as strategically self-defeating; he has far more leverage as an independent who holds out the prospect of being the Republicans’ own version of Angus King up in Maine.
That rather clearly indicates to me that, unless Fetterman simply retires altogether — which is what Democrats and the media are clearly pressuring him to do — he will run as an independent. That certainly explains the extremely rare pact (and PAC) he has formed with Dave McCormick, a joint fundraising effort for both of them. In fact, if the November midterms turn out as badly as many fear, and the GOP loses the Senate by a seat . . . I would expect a move by then. (The implications of a joint fundraising committee basically explain themselves.)
This would, of course, create all manner of wrinkles in 2028. Would Republicans in Pennsylvania be inclined to merely step back in deference to Fetterman, running as an independent? You can pretty much guarantee that McCormick won’t be helping out a GOP candidate, nor would it surprise me to see Donald Trump offer his endorsement — Trump loves attention-getting cross-party moves like that. (On the other hand, an endorsement by Donald Trump may be of even more dubious value by November 2028 than it currently is.) But it would be up to the voters of Pennsylvania in that case, not the grandees of the GOP.
Either way, in my opinion, the die is now cast: Get ready for Fetterman to either leave his party or retire between now and 2028. His career as an elected Democrat is essentially over. It seems he’s well aware of this, too. With yesterday’s appearance, he’s edging ever closer to the door.