As Republican prospects in this fall’s midterms deteriorate, the pre-criminations have already started. Many are eager to blame President Trump’s decision to launch a war on Iran, and indeed, the increase in diesel and gas prices has been politically brutal. But another piece of the puzzle is the incredible political damage done by President Trump’s sweeping unilateral tariffs.
Trump completed a stunning comeback in 2024 in large part because soaring inflation during Joe Biden’s presidency led the majority of Americans to conclude they were better off economically during Trump’s first term. While federal government intervention rarely works to bring down prices, it can certainly make things more expensive. And in raising tariffs, Trump took an action that, by design, made many goods more expensive for consumers.
A major part of the case for tariffs was that for decades, our dependence on buying goods abroad has shrunk the industrial base at home, hollowing out towns and moving people away from stable factory jobs to the uncertainty of a gig economy. The thesis was that by raising the cost of foreign goods, the government could reverse this process, convincing businesses to manufacture more goods domestically.
We have always been skeptical of these claims. But even if the protectionists were right on all points, the transformation of the economy they sought was bound to take more than one election cycle. Businesses make decisions such as where to manufacture products years in advance. Moving manufacturing from overseas back to the U.S. requires planning, building, and a massive investment. Businesses were never going to make decisions like this in reaction to a policy that not only could change with the next president but has also wildly vacillated during this presidency. Trump, often on social media, spent the early months of his presidency arbitrarily announcing he was raising or lowering tariffs, with his policies often fluctuating based on which foreign leader he was feuding with on a given day. He triggered an unnecessary rupture with Canada, which is rich in natural resources and has long been a key partner. He also imposed tariffs with shoddy legal reasoning that the Supreme Court rejected.
The result of this erratic policy is that Americans have felt the pinch from tariffs, which have led them to trust Republicans less on their handling of cost-of-living issues. President Trump’s repeated insistence that foreigners pay the full burden of tariffs and that affordability issues are a “hoax” has understandably fallen on deaf ears. And this sticker shock has not been offset by benefits from increased American manufacturing. The manufacturing sectors that are doing the best tend to be the ones least protected by tariffs.
Additionally, many states with competitive House and Senate races have been hit by tariffs that hurt consumers and businesses dependent on overseas parts and materials, as well as by retaliatory tariffs limiting their export businesses. Ohio, Michigan, Texas, North Carolina, and Iowa are all examples, and tariffs have played a prominent role in those races as well as close House races.
Aside from being bad economic policy and a political own goal, all of this is yet another reminder of the wisdom of the Founders, who believed that major changes needed to be approved first by the people, through the House, and then by the states, in the Senate. Trump couldn’t be bothered to try to win the approval of either, so he acted on his own whim, and Republicans increasingly look like they will pay a hefty political price.