Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to defy the polls once again. With votes still being counted in Israel, it appears that both his Likud party and his broader right-wing coalition will emerge with the largest numbers. But neither he nor his chief opponent, Gadi Eisenkot, will have a sufficient number of votes to give them a clear path to forming a majority government.
Under Israel’s complicated multiparty parliamentary system, it takes a coalition of 61 seats to put together a government in the 120-seat Knesset. With about 85 percent of the vote in, Netanyahu’s Likud was at 27 seats and his coalition was at 54 seats, while Eisenkot’s newly formed Yashar party was at 22 seats and his broader anti-Bibi coalition had slipped to just 49.
A surge in turnout among Arab voters led to a significant haul for the Arab parties, which look like they’ll end up controlling around 17 seats. In theory, Eisenkot could gain a majority by allying with one of the Arab parties, or he could join a unity government with Netanyahu at the helm. But while campaigning, he ruled out serving under Netanyahu or partnering with the Arab parties given that their leaders have been unwilling to identify Hamas as a terrorist organization.
Prior to the election, one scenario was floated in which Eisenkot could form a fragile minority government, in which an Arab party would vote for the formation of an anti-Netanyahu government without formally joining it. But that assumed Eisenkot would be one or two seats short of a majority, whereas currently he is a dozen seats away.
The prospect of a unity government with Netanyahu that would freeze out far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich would certainly have an appeal to many in Eisenkot’s coalition. And when it comes to matters of war and peace — ending Hamas rule in Gaza and countering Hezbollah and Iran — there is a lot of overlap between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. But two issues will be hard to square. One is Eisenkot’s insistence on an independent inquiry into the security failures that led to October 7. And another is his support for ending various exemptions that have allowed ultra-Orthodox communities to avoid military service, placing more of a burden on Israeli reservists who have had to spend long stretches away from their families and jobs over the past three years on multiple tours of duty.
Netanyahu opposes an October 7 inquiry, and he is closely allied with the ultra-Orthodox parties, which bitterly oppose conscription in their communities. In addition to these barriers, there is the broader issue that Eisenkot and his allies are eager to move on from Netanyahu. When exit polls initially showed Eisenkot with the largest vote share, he called on Netanyahu to step down and retire from politics.
If the current results hold, Netanyahu will be given the first shot at forming a government, setting up political jockeying over the next few weeks. But unless one of Eisenkot’s campaign promises gets tossed aside, Israel will be heading to another election a few months from now.
If that happens, Netanyahu would stay in power in the meantime. That would enable him to resume the war in Iran, something that President Trump has telegraphed for after the U.S. midterm elections next week. Netanyahu would be left with the hope that by the time of the do-over Israeli election, his domestic fortunes will change.
Though this can’t be treated as a victory for Netanyahu, it would — for now — be another example of survival from a cunning politician who has already managed to serve as prime minister of Israel in three stints totaling 19 years since 1996 — by far the longest tenure of any Israeli leader. A majority of the country may have just voted against him, but it’s looking like he will live another day.