In a post-election press conference after Republicans lost control of Congress 20 years ago, George W. Bush famously described the event as a “thumpin’.” Last night was closer to Chernobyl.
Not only did Democrats handily take control of both chambers of Congress; they also won victories in deep-red states. Republicans lost not only in Maine and Michigan, which are tough even in good GOP years, but also in Kansas, South Carolina, and Texas — states that Trump carried by 16, 18, and 24 points, respectively, just two years ago. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in 94 years. To put that in context, FDR was finishing his first term as president, and the Marx Brothers hadn’t yet released Duck Soup.
Tuesday’s result was a combination of difficult fundamentals and political malpractice in individual races.
It is typical for presidents to suffer significant defeats after their sixth year in office, which was true of both Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2014. Even though Trump’s terms were not consecutive, clearly there is a lot of fatigue with a political figure who has been dominating the political conversation since he came down that escalator more than eleven years ago.
Trump also did himself and his party no favors. Though he closed the border and expanded the signature tax cuts from his first term, he mitigated these wins with unforced errors. Despite being given a second term in large part because of consumer frustration with the cost of living, he decided to pursue an erratic and unconstitutional tariff policy, which, by design, made consumer goods more expensive.
Instead of focusing on issues that were at the top of voters’ concerns, he spent much of the last two years obsessing over idiosyncratic quests such as constructing a White House ballroom, renaming the Kennedy Center after himself, renovating the Reflecting Pool, and rebuilding a golf course on the Potomac River.
Trump urged voters to pretend he was on the ballot this year, and many did — only to vote against him. Trump’s approval was at just 38 percent among the electorate that voted in the midterms, according to the Fox News voter poll. The same polling found that just 16 percent voted to express support for Trump, while 43 percent said one of the reasons they voted was to express opposition to him.
It is of course impossible to discuss what happened in the election without considering the effect of Trump’s decision to launch the war in Iran without seeking congressional approval or making a sustained case to the American people. Polling prior to the conflict already pointed to a tough environment for the president’s party, and all of the other factors would have led to a tough night for Republicans, regardless. Still, it was an unpopular war that drove up the price of fuel and fertilizer, adding to voter discontent. Nearly three-quarters of the electorate said that Iran was a crucial or major factor in their vote, and Democrats won those voters by 27 points.
On top of all of the above, there were a series of self-inflicted wounds. Texas Republicans decided to nominate the unpopular Ken Paxton, who was shrouded in scandal, over the incumbent John Cornyn, who coasted to victory in his four campaigns for Senate (although it might not have made a difference, given that even Governor Greg Abbott lost). In South Carolina, instead of nominating an experienced candidate to replace Lindsey Graham, Trump tipped the scales in favor of the deceased senator’s sister, Darline, a political novice who fumbled simple questions.
There isn’t much good news to take from an election that will likely send to the Senate Abdul El-Sayed, who pledged support for the Muslim Brotherhood’s revolution in Egypt back in 2012. But if there is a silver lining, it’s that there is less evidence that Democratic wins represented an ideological victory. Voters said they trusted Republicans slightly more on taxes and immigration. Just 25 percent of the electorate defined themselves as liberal, compared to 34 percent who identified as conservative, and 41 percent who described themselves as moderate. Meanwhile, less than a third of the electorate said they had a favorable view of socialism, with just 9 percent having a strongly favorable view.
Of course, there is no sugarcoating this debacle. Democrats won a sizable-enough majority to block Trump’s judicial nominees for the next two years, and, if they are able to build on this in 2028 by establishing unified control of Washington, they will seek to blow up the filibuster and get free rein to implement a radical agenda. The fight over 2028 begins soon, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.