Now Is the Time for the U.S. to Pursue Venezuelan Elections

A fter months of forced exile, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returned triumphantly to Venezuela last Sunday, placing enormous pressure on the unelected leftist regime of Delcy Rodríguez to schedule elections next year. Machado slipped across the border from Colombia but was escorted by enthusiastic supporters along her way to Caracas.

In a conference call with reporters, Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted that the U.S. urged the Rodríguez regime to permit Machado’s return “weeks and weeks” ago and that she was free to enter the country. But Machado can be forgiven for her skepticism of Rodríguez’s sincerity. Forced into hiding after Maduro’s government stole the 2024 election, Machado made a daring escape from Venezuela to accept her Nobel Peace Prize last year. Returning to Venezuela required real courage. More than 300 political prisoners remain in the government’s jails, according to human rights group Foro Penal. One hardline Venezuelan official said earlier this year that “we will be waiting for her.”

Previously, Washington had been wary of Machado’s returning. Rubio claimed the one time the U.S. discouraged her from returning to Venezuela was when she wanted to be there after the massive June earthquake. The State Department reasoned that her return might interfere with U.S.-directed relief aid passing through the main airport. On X, Rubio credited the prior negotiations between the Rodríguez regime and other opposition leaders as having set the stage for Machado’s return. But no doubt the administration had earlier viewed Machado’s presence in Venezuela as “counterproductive.” The Trump administration was clearly more comfortable with Rodríguez in power and no definitive timetable for new elections.

This attitude was shortsighted. Machado should be Venezuela’s president. Former President Nicolás Maduro blocked her from running for president in 2024, but Machado’s stand-in candidate probably won the corrupt election over Maduro by a wide margin. Machado certainly is the country’s most popular political figure and would almost certainly win an election if it were held today.

Probably realizing it had run out of excuses, the Trump administration finally relented to Machado’s return. But there might be a more positive explanation. With the war against Iran stalled, and the economic squeeze on Cuba’s hardline regime ineffective at regime change, perhaps Rubio now realizes democratic transition in Venezuela represents their best shot at a needed foreign-policy win, and clearly Machado must be part of that equation.

As we argued here in January, a democratic transition with Machado, as the likely next president, represents the best long-term interests of the United States. A Machado government would be our best bet to secure Venezuela as an ally and a reliable partner in energy development into the future.

Along with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Nobel Peace Prize–winning Machado is one of the most consequential voices for freedom in the world today. She demonstrates the necessity of charismatic leadership in successful democratic transitions. Machado has called for elections in July 2027.

This position remains at odds with the Trump administration, which urges a “go-slow” approach on elections. “You can’t street protest your way to a democracy,” Rubio warned. Rubio wants to sequence choosing new members for Venezuela’s Supreme Court and then the National Electoral Council, with interim President Rodríguez stepping aside, before elections can move ahead. For her part, Rodríguez still refuses to set an election date.

But this pace is too slow for Machado. In the words of one of Machado’s key advisers, “María Corina is back to drive popular mobilization; that is her goal.” Despite being associated with the political right, Machado has allied with traditional left-wing, but anti-Chavista, parties in the opposition. She intends to tour the country to rebuild her political movement and support her transition goals. We might assume discreet discussions with senior Venezuelan military officers will be part of that plan. Machado said she will not participate in ongoing negotiations with the regime for the transition schedule; a new round is supposed to start next month.

The conditions for a democratic transition in Venezuela appear favorable. Last week, the opposition held its first national protest in two years, demanding new elections. The opposition appears united behind Machado as its unified presidential candidate, and the regime itself is showing signs of fissures. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has no legitimacy — the government-controlled National Assembly has not extended her interim term in office — and little popularity, suggesting the leftist Chavez movement is divided on her continued rule.

Moreover, Machado’s arrival comes as the ruling Chavista party’s fortunes are at a low ebb. The earthquake in June killed at least 6,500 people, which highlighted the government’s ineptitude. Shoddy construction and corruption may have been responsible for the collapse of a dozen public housing towers in La Guaira. Looming in the background is former President Nicolás Maduro’s trial in Brooklyn, N.Y., for drug trafficking and human rights abuses, which probably will spotlight the corruption of Rodríguez and other prominent regime figures. Perhaps for the first time, a divided Venezuelan ruling elite faces a reasonably united opposition movement.

Yet Trump still refuses to accept Machado as his preferred option — on Sunday, he dismissed her as “a very nice woman” — and remains satisfied working with the authoritarian Rodríguez.

This last comment underscores the three-way challenge Machado now faces. Just getting back into her country looks like the easy part. She must continue to court the Trump administration, but this is walking a thin line. She endorses Rubio’s general transition plan, but she wants the process sped up and an election date set. She says she supports Trump’s controversial oil deal if it aligns with Venezuelan law, but the deal’s legality and benefits to her country are unclear, according to some energy experts. Moreover, it will be hard for her to resist the criticism U.S. control over Venezuelan affairs faces from even U.S.-friendly supporters.

Machado must also satisfy demand for a prompt transition and to prosecute those regime elements responsible for corruption and human rights abuses; she stresses that severe crimes are not subject to immunity. At the same time, her public call for an independent truth commission to investigate crimes suggests she recognizes the need for national reconciliation, too.

Machado’s return is momentous, with a great many local and international ramifications. The focus now shifts away from dubious oil deals to a real political transition, where we should have had our attention in the first place. The Rodríguez regime will try to delay elections indefinitely. As a party to Venezuela’s future, the U.S. needs to demonstrate that it firmly backs an accelerated timetable for elections and a democratic transition next year.

All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.