Why Russia Is Targeting European Freezers

T wice in the space of a few weeks, Russian hackers have managed to seize control of supermarket refrigeration systems in Europe. It began with hundreds of French stores in mid-October, after which, in early November, hackers struck outlets in Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands, and elsewhere. The hackers remotely forced freezers and chillers into prolonged defrost mode, driving temperatures to more than 120 degrees Fahrenheit and spoiling large quantities of food. These attacks have revealed an underrated aspect of rearmament that has so far been almost completely overlooked: civil defense.

Hackers behind most ransomware attacks demand payment. These hackers simply disrupted Europe’s food supply and left without a message. Only a few days after the most recent (as of this writing) attacks, in early November, did a Russian group finally claim responsibility. European policymakers who may have wished that some random teenagers were behind the attacks instead had their fears confirmed: This was a Russian attack against Europe’s food supply.

During the Cold War, European countries actively prepared for a war with the Soviet Union by not only maintaining sizable militaries but also ensuring that civil society could continue to function during war. No country took this further than Sweden, which stored years’ worth of oil in massive, secret rock caverns. Medicine, food, and other necessities were also stockpiled. Sweden had mandatory conscription for all men: a year of service for all 18-year-olds, which included extensive training in guerrilla warfare to ensure that resistance could continue if or when Stockholm fell.

Moreover, everyone between the ages of 16 and 70 — including women — had a “total defense duty.” Women and those who had not served militarily were preassigned to other roles, which they were to assume immediately if mobilization were declared: Report to the nearest hospital. Collect the keys to the local bomb shelter. Turn up at the munitions factory. The very moment fighter jets took off from the other side of the Baltic Sea, every Swede would know exactly where to go, what to do, and what their individual role in the defense of the country was. Some civilians were even trained as special stay-behind forces, tasked with carrying out sabotage missions behind enemy lines. Other countries had their own (less extensive) plans for ensuring that their population could be fed and clothed if the Cold War turned hot.

Today, all of that is gone — and Russia just reminded Europe how vulnerable it is. By targeting Ireland, a neutral faraway country, Russia, drove home the point: No matter where you are, we can find you. You can rearm all you want, but can you outlast us in a war while your civilian population is starving?

The ongoing European rearmament has focused on military buildup and on drone technology, the importance of which Ukraine has demonstrated. However, had the government in Kyiv not been able to provide for its civilians behind the front lines — securing the food supply, quickly repairing damage to energy infrastructure and civilian housing, and so on — Ukraine would never have lasted this long. Napoleon famously said that an army marches on its stomach, but this is also true for the civilian population during a war. Right now, civil defense is Europe’s soft underbelly.

In Ukraine, everyone is doing his or her part in the war effort, and everyone understands that the war requires sacrifice even from those who are hundreds of miles from the front lines. European policymakers, however, while rearming, have utterly failed to instill in their populations an understanding that national defense is a task that falls on everyone and requires sacrifices of everyone. People would not like to hear that, and policymakers know it.

In Europe, the reaction among shoppers to the recent attacks has been one of confusion: Why are supermarket freezers connected to the web? Just unplug them from the internet and this won’t happen again! But there’s a problem. Since the 1960s, businesses have gradually moved away from the traditional model of holding large stockpiles of product in warehouses and have instead adopted a “just-in-time” (JIT) philosophy. Under JIT, businesses stock only what they immediately need, and they order more supplies — typically automatically with computers — only when customers purchase something, and only as much as they’ve purchased. This business model already demonstrated its vulnerability during the Covid pandemic, when supply chain disruptions caused shortages and contributed to price spikes.

This time, the hackers targeted fridges and freezers; next time, it may be an entire warehouse management system. Even brief disruptions can turn into shortages, thanks to JIT. Just-in-time inventory, together with the “Internet of Things,” form a perfect storm of soft civilian targets that Europe has not yet prepared to weather.

Yet policymakers are highly unlikely to demand that businesses return to their old ways. The reason is simple: The “just-in-time” model and remotely controlled freezers reduce warehousing and staffing costs and, consequently, consumer prices. As long as cyberattacks are infrequent, businesses will continue to view these technologies as a net positive. Abandoning them would increase retail prices, and incumbent European governments fear another bout of inflation about as much as they fear the Russians.

This does not justify complacency. Policymakers should include vital private businesses and business leaders in war-gaming, allowing them to understand how they may be able to continue to operate in the event of war. At the same time, increased cooperation and dialogue between governments and the private sector can encourage more businesses to think about long-term resilience for these kinds of previously unthinkable scenarios.

Sweden is leading the way to rebuild the “total defense” of the Cold War. The last right-wing government even appointed a minister of civil defense. Pamphlets on what civilians need to do in the event of war, last issued during the Cold War, have made a comeback and have been sent to every household. If other European countries do not take note and follow suit, the recent cyberattacks against supermarkets may prove to have been a harbinger of doom.