I don’t claim any great past success in discerning in advance which justice has been assigned the role of writing the majority opinion in which of the Court’s cases. But with about six weeks to go in the Court’s term, there’s ample basis for some intelligent guesswork. (I draw here on SCOTUSblog’s charts. I haven’t scoured the oral arguments for more clues as to which justices might have displayed their interest in particular cases.)
For background: The Court hears oral arguments for each of the seven months from October to April. At conference after oral arguments, the Chief Justice, if he’s in the tentative majority in a particular case, or the next most senior judge, if the Chief is in dissent, assigns who will draft the majority opinion. The Chief typically aims to even out the assignments both for each month and for the term as a whole.
For the October oral argument session, there were eight cases argued, and opinions have been issued in six. The two remaining cases are Sackett v. EPA (what is proper test for determining whether wetlands are “waters of the United States” under the Clean Water Act?) and Allen v. Milligan (whether Alabama’s 2021 redistricting plan violated the Voting Rights Act). The three justices who have yet to write for October are the Chief, Justice Thomas, and Justice Alito.
Because I would think that the Chief was planning to assign himself the two big cases from the November calendar on racial preferences in university admissions, I will guess that he took a pass on an October assignment and instead assigned Sackett and Milligan to Thomas and Alito. I have no basis for further guessing who got which, so I’ll just take a stab at Milligan for Thomas and Sackett for Alito.
For November, there are still six unresolved cases. I’ll go with the Chief for the Harvard and UNC racial-preferences cases. The next most interesting question for that month is who will be writing in Haaland v. Brackeen, on the constitutionality of various provisions of the Indian Child Welfare Act. Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, and Gorsuch have already written for November. Among the remaining justices, I’ll guess Kavanaugh.
For December, rulings have been issued in five of the nine cases, with opinions by Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor, Barrett, and Jackson. The two big cases from that month are 303 Creative v. Elenis (scope of an artist’s First Amendment protections against a public-accommodation law) and Moore v. Harper (meaning of Constitution’s Elections Clause). I’d think that the Chief, Gorsuch, or Kavanaugh has been assigned 303 Creative and that either Gorsuch or Kavanaugh has been assigned Moore (which might end up getting sidelined). I’ll guess Gorsuch for 303 Creative and Kavanaugh for Moore.
For January, rulings have been issued in every case but Glacier Northwest v. Teamsters (whether federal labor law preempts a particular state tort claim against a union). The four justices who haven’t written are the Chief, Alito, Sotomayor, and Barrett. I’ll guess Barrett.
The last month for which I’ll guess is February. There remain only three cases from that month, with the big two on the Biden administration’s student-debt relief plan. I’d think that those cases would be written by the same author. I’ll guess that the Chief assigned them to himself. (Only two justices, Thomas and Kavanaugh, have written for that month.)