A month ago, I made a stab at guessing some of the then-remaining assignments. I suppose that I did okay. I correctly guessed that Justice Alito would write the majority in Sackett v. EPA and that Justice Barrett would write the majority in Glacier Northwest v. Teamsters. But I was very wrong on Allen v. Milligan (written by the Chief, not Justice Thomas, and affirming the ruling below) and also wrong on Haaland v. Brackeen (written by Barrett, not Kavanaugh). The other cases I guessed at remain pending.
I’ll try again now, with ten cases outstanding and the Court entering what everyone assumes to be its last week of the term.
November calendar. In the two race-preference cases involving Harvard and UNC, I will stick with the Chief as the author in both. I would think that he would want these opinions to be a major part of his legacy.
The Chief, Alito, and Kavanaugh are the only justices who haven’t yet written from the November calendar. Kavanaugh seems to have maxed out already at seven opinions for the term, so I’ll predict that Alito will write the majority opinion in Mallory v. Norfolk Southern Railway Co. on the scope of a state’s jurisdiction over a corporation.
December calendar. Two cases remain, and two justices—the Chief and Gorsuch—haven’t yet written. I’ll pick Gorsuch for 303 Creative v. Elenis (clash between Free Speech rights and public-accommodations law).
The other case—also a big one—is Moore v. Harper on the meaning of the Constitution’s Elections Clause. I had previously guessed Kavanaugh for this one, but his opinion today in United States v. Texas is also from December. Simple process of elimination would suggest going with the Chief, but that would mean that he took on quite a heavy load in the first three months. Plus, it’s far from clear that he would be in the majority. So I’ll now go with Alito. (I will note that there is a substantial possibility that the Court will simply dismiss this case.)
February calendar. The two student-debt relief cases, Biden v. Nebraska and Department of Education v. Brown, remain. This is the toughest guess. February had a very light calendar, and only three justices—Thomas, Sotomayor, and Kavanaugh—have written. I’d think that a single justice would have been assigned both cases, but it’s possible that the cases have very different majorities. Plus, I’m less confident than many are that the Court will rule in favor of standing in at least one of the cases. I’ll go ahead and make a rather wild guess that Barrett will write in Biden v. Nebraska and Kagan in Department of Education v. Brown.
March calendar. The only case that remains is Abitron Austria v. Hetronic (some trademark issue), and the only justice who hasn’t written is Sotomayor, so I’ll guess Sotomayor. [3:24 p.m. update: I’ve corrected an earlier version of this.]
April calendar. Two cases remain, Groff v. DeJoy (on Title VII’s religious exemption) and Counterman v. Colorado (what qualifies as a true threat unprotected by First Amendment). The only justices who haven’t written for April are Alito and Kagan. I’ll guess Alito for Groff and Kagan for Counterman.