I’m taking a look at the various federal courts of appeals to see what vacancies might arise and what impact President-elect Trump might have on them, and I figured I might as well pass along some notes while I do.
Let’s start with the Ninth Circuit, which covers nine Western states—Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington—as well as Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.
The Ninth Circuit has 29 active judgeships, and they’re all filled. There are 16 appointees of Democratic presidents (3 Clinton, 5 Obama, and 8 Biden), versus 13 appointees of Republican presidents (3 GW Bush, 10 Trump).
The three Bush appointees—Consuelo Callahan, Sandra Ikuta, and Milan Smith—are all eligible to take senior status. [11/28 addendum:] Mark Bennett will become eligible in July 2028.
The three Clinton appointees—Ronald Gould, Johnnie Rawlinson, and Kim Wardlaw—are also senior-eligible. Gould is 78, Rawlinson 72, and Wardlaw 70. (Here and elsewhere, I am basing age on birth year, so if anyone has a birthday from tomorrow to the end of the year, I’m wishing a happy birthday a bit early.)
Of the Obama appointees, two are on the verge of becoming senior-eligible: Mary Murguia when she turns 65 next September, Morgan Christen on the 15th anniversary of her judgeship in January 2027.
The math here is very simple: If Trump can replace two of the Democratic appointees, the Ninth Circuit will have a majority of appointees of Republican presidents. Gould and Rawlinson are probably the most promising prospects to step down. Back in 2022, Rawlinson signaled that she would step down if Biden named a specific former law clerk of hers as her successor. Murguia’s tenure as chief judge runs until 2028, so I would expect her to stay on.
Replacing the three Bush appointees would help to ensure that a Democratic president elected in 2028 wouldn’t be able to swing the court back to a majority of appointees of Democratic presidents.
(If you see any mistakes, please let me know.)