We are seven weeks into 2026, and not a single one of the two dozen federal appellate judges who were appointed by Republican presidents and who are eligible to take senior status or retire has declared an intention to do so. Anyone who is planning to go senior or retire probably would have said so by now, in order to provide ample lead time to have the seat filled before the Senate elections in November 2026. So it’s reasonable to predict that there will be no, or hardly any, vacancies from this group this year.
Meanwhile, it’s been nearly four months since Eighth Circuit judge Duane Benton announced that he would take senior status, and President Trump has still not nominated anyone to his seat. [Update: Trump announced late on Wednesday that he will nominate Missouri lawyer Justin Smith to that seat. Among his many distinctions, Smith has worked as Trump’s personal lawyer.]
In 2018, the second year of Trump’s first term, the Senate confirmed 18 federal appellate judges (on top of the 12 it confirmed in 2017). In this second year of Trump’s second term, it now appears likely that the Senate will have the opportunity to confirm no more than 2 or 3 (on top of the 6 it confirmed in 2025).