The Supreme Court issued decisions in six cases today, so that leaves just ten cases remaining on its docket for the term. It’s now possible to hazard a decent guess as to which justice will write the majority opinion in each of the remaining cases. (Not that I have compiled a great record on these guesses in the past.)
My guesses, I’ll note, rest on the premise that the Chief Justice tries to equalize majority assignments for each of the seven monthly sittings as well as overall.
We see from SCOTUSblog statistics that the justices have issued 47 signed opinions. So if all of the remaining cases yield signed opinions, that would make 57 for the term. That averages out to six assignments per justice, with an additional three remaining. So that would imply that three justices would end up with seven majority assignments.
The Chief, Thomas, Kavanaugh, and Barrett have all reached the level of six, though I have to wonder whether Thomas’s pair of EPA cases from the March sitting might be counted as only one. Sotomayor, Kagan, and Gorsuch have had five assignments so far, and Alito and Jackson four. So of the remaining ten cases, you might expect Alito and Jackson to have two apiece, and Sotomayor, Kagan, and Gorsuch one each.
Now let’s look at the monthly sittings.
Two cases remain from the January sitting, Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton (concerning the proper standard of review for a First Amendment challenge to Texas’s age-verification law on porn sites) and Hewitt v. United States (on sentencing reduction). Two justices—Thomas and Jackson—have yet to write for that month. So I’ll guess that Thomas writes Free Speech Coalition and that Jackson writes Hewitt.
One case is left from the February sitting, Gutierrez v. Saenz (on whether a death-sentenced prisoner has Article III standing to challenge Texas’s statute on DNA testing). Sotomayor and Gorsuch are the only justices who haven’t written for February. Sotomayor has already written for the other remaining sittings, so if she is going to get a sixth assignment, this would be the most likely candidate. But will she be in the majority?
There are still four cases from March: Louisiana v. Callais (redistricting), Riley v. Bondi (immigration deadline), FCC v. Consumers’ Research (nondelegation doctrine), and Medina v. Planned Parenthood (Medicaid Act’s any-qualified-provider provision). Five justices haven’t written for that month: Alito, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. Given all of the variables, I’ll be very lucky to get these guesses right. But here goes: Barrett in Louisiana, Kagan in Riley, Gorsuch in Consumers’ Research, and Alito in Medina.
The two remaining cases from April are both big: Kennedy v. Braidwood Management (Appointments Clause challenge to Preventive Services Task Force) and Mahmoud v. Taylor (religious rights of public-school parents). Alito, Kagan, and Jackson haven’t written for April. I’ll guess Alito for Mahmoud. I can’t see either Kagan or Jackson being assigned to write Kennedy (unless for Kagan she didn’t get a case for March), so I’ll guess that the Chief either takes that one for himself or assigns it to Kavanaugh or Barrett.
On the special sitting in May for Trump v. CASA (nationwide injunctions against executive order on birthright citizenship), I’ll guess the Chief.
The alert reader will discern that I am projecting that Jackson ends up with only five assignments and that Sotomayor might also have only five. When you’re often not in the majority, it’s tough to get a pro rata share of majority assignments.
Don’t bet on any of these predictions. The next scheduled announcement session is next Thursday.