[I’m going to leave this post up, but on further review and inquiry I now believe that the items below don’t actually signal anything.]
Kudos to legal journalist Katie Barlow for spotting a clear signal that President Biden has informed D.C. Circuit judge Ketanji Brown Jackson that he will nominate her to replace Justice Stephen Breyer, for whom she clerked just over two decades ago. As Barlow explains, the D.C. Circuit’s usual practice is to release opinions on Tuesdays and Fridays. But it released an opinion today (Thursday) in a case in which Jackson sat on the panel—a case in which there is no evident reason for expediting the opinion.
Why does this signal anything? Well, the D.C. Circuit has apparently adopted a practice in which a judge who is to be nominated to the Supreme Court stops taking part in rulings immediately upon the announcement of the nomination. As Barlow points out, on a Monday back in 2018, some hours before President Trump announced his nomination of Brett Kavanaugh, the D.C. Circuit issued an opinion in a case in which Brett Kavanaugh was on the panel.
The plan, it would seem, was for the White House to announce Jackson’s nomination today. (Otherwise, the opinion could have issued in the ordinary course tomorrow.) But the Ukraine crisis might have set back the announcement. In any event, look for Biden to announce Jackson’s nomination very soon.
For what it’s worth, I’ve been predicting all along that Jackson would be the nominee.
Update: Here are two more decisions just released today in which Jackson is on the panel.