Current Prediction

Unless Miers were to withdraw–which I believe is unlikely unless there are some unforeseen revelations or her hearings are a disaster in that her performance fails to meet the quite low expectations–Miers will be confirmed. I believe it is unclear whether a significant number of Democrats will vote against her, but I seriously doubt whether many–if any–Senate Republicans will vote against her. I expect several senators to be very critical, but I believe they will vote for her confirmation in the end, and she will be the next associate justice of the Supreme Court. As for the timing, I know the White House is shooting for a vote before Thanksgiving (see here), but I think that will be a stretch. A December confirmation vote is more likely.

Jonathan H. Adler — Jonathan H. Adler teaches courses in environmental, administrative, and constitutional law at the Case Western Reserve University School of Law.

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