The Corner

Based on Nate Silver’s Recent Exit Poll Tweet


Romney will get close to 55% tonight in NV.

Nate said the entrance poll shows Romney getting 31 percent of the vote among those whose households made under $30,000 per year. But he won 48 percent among households between $30,000 and $50,000 per year, 58 percent among those making between $50,000 and $100,000 and 62 percent among those with six-figure incomes.

Nevada’s electorate tonight was relatively well off. As many voters today made over $100,000 per year as under $50,000, according to the entrance polls.

Earlier on the NYT site, David Jones said those making 100k a year were about 25% of the electorate.

So, do the math:

25% of the caucus goers made 100k or more * 62% for Romney = 15.5% of total vote.

50% of the caucus goers make between 50 and 100k * 58% for Romney = 29% of total vote

25% of the caucus goers make less than 50k.  If they split evenly between those making less than 30k and those making between 30 and 50k, we get

12.5% of the caucus goers make less than 30k * 31% for Romney = 4.1% of the total vote

12.5% of the caucus goers makes between 30k and 50k * 48% for Romney = 6% of the total vote.


15.5 + 29+ 10.1= 55.6%


This calculation is not very sensitive to the split between those making more or less than 30k.  If those making 30-50k are 60% of the total making less than 50k, for example, then Romney’s total vote share goes up only .2%.

Henry Olsen — Henry Olsen is an elections analyst and political essayist who studies conservative politics, both here and abroad.

Most Popular


The Gun-Control Debate Could Break America

Last night, the nation witnessed what looked a lot like an extended version of the famous “two minutes hate” from George Orwell’s novel 1984. During a CNN town hall on gun control, a furious crowd of Americans jeered at two conservatives, Marco Rubio and Dana Loesch, who stood in defense of the Second ... Read More

Billy Graham: Neither Prophet nor Theologian

Asked in 1972 if he believed in miracles, Billy Graham answered: Yes, Jesus performed some and there are many "miracles around us today, including television and airplanes." Graham was no theologian. Neither was he a prophet. Jesus said "a prophet hath no honor in his own country." Prophets take adversarial ... Read More
Film & TV

Why We Can’t Have Wakanda

SPOILERS AHEAD Black Panther is a really good movie that lives up to the hype in just about every way. Surely someone at Marvel Studios had an early doubt, reading the script and thinking: “Wait, we’re going to have hundreds of African warriors in brightly colored tribal garb, using ancient weapons, ... Read More
Law & the Courts

Obstruction Confusions

In his Lawfare critique of one of my several columns about the purported obstruction case against President Trump, Gabriel Schoenfeld loses me — as I suspect he will lose others — when he says of himself, “I do not think I am Trump-deranged.” Gabe graciously expresses fondness for me, and the feeling is ... Read More