House Update



In the House races with declared results and at least 10 percent of the vote reporting (or 50,000 votes in early-voting states), the GOP is leading in 52 Democrat-held districts and losing in only two Republican-held ones. That’s +50.

If one added in some seats where the GOP leads, but fewer than 10 percent of the votes are in, one could stretch the gain by a couple more. Plus, the GOP trails at least three Democratic incumbents (Bright, AL-2, Taylor, MS-4, Pallone, NJ-6) by only a few hundred votes.

Also, the GOP is expected to gain or run close in at least eight House districts coming up in the West, and there are some potential upsets as well. The GOP is on track for a pickup in the 58 to 65 range. But to get to +70 now requires the GOP to get almost all the close races remaining.

Henry Olsen — Henry Olsen is an elections analyst and political essayist who studies conservative politics, both here and abroad.  He looks at election returns and poll data to understand why ...

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