The Corner

New Poll: Cotton Tight with Pryor, Red State Dems in Trouble All Over

American Crossroads, a Republican super PAC, commissioned polls of four red states where Republicans can pick up Senate seats in 2014, and more than a year away from the race and before the real campaign’s even begun, the situation is looking good for GOP candidates in all four states.

In Arkansas, freshman representative Tom Cotton trails incumbent senator Mark Pryor, but by just three points, within the margin of error — and Pryor is at 45 percent of the vote, well below what an incumbent wants. On a generic ballot, Republicans are ahead, with 40 percent of Arkansans sampled saying they would vote for the Republican candidate for Senate if the election is held today, versus 37 percent saying they’d go for the Democrat. Pryor’s favorable rating remains strong, though, at 46–37; Cotton’s is 37–26. A poll released Sunday had the race even tighter, with Pryor up 42–41 over Cotton.

The situation is similar in Alaska, where Democrat Mark Begich is up for reelection next year, and Louisiana, where Democrat Mary Landrieu is defending her seat. Both of them lead their potential opponents, but only by a point or two, and the generic Republican leads the generic Democrat in both states by a small margin. 

In West Virginia, where Democrat Jay Rockefeller will not be running for reelection in 2014, the likely Republican candidate, Representative Shelley Moore Capito, is demolishing the likely Democratic candidate, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, 51–34. President Obama’s approval rating is well under water in all of these states, but he’s really in bathyscape territory in West Virginia, with just 25 percent of likely voters approving, and 65 percent disapproving. The poll was conducted by GOP polling firm Harper Polling.

Via Politico’s Morning Score.

Patrick Brennan — Patrick Brennan is a writer and policy analyst based in Washington, D.C. He was Director of Digital Content for Marco Rubio's presidential campaign, writing op-eds, policy content, and leading the ...

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